I was correct on all the matches today except for the Federer/Berdych match. I knew that I shouldn't have chosen Federer, not because I didn't think he'd win, but because the price for him to win was wrong. It should have been higher for me to take it. Either way I'm up on the day....... I'm quite glad about that.
I'll think on tomorrow's picks and I'll let you know before they start.
Friday, 19 August 2011
Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Fri)
Murray v Simon
Murray went up an early break on Simon, but was immediately broken again. Now he is up a break again.
Murray ended up winning this match so it turned out well.
Fish v Nadal
As predicted Fish took down Nadal for the first time in straight sets. He played excellent tennis and Nadal struggled.
Federer v Berdych
From the beginning I backed Fed, however, after watching his play and watching him get down an early break I got out of that position and switched to Berdych. I sold out of this position after Berdych won the first set.
Djokovic v Monfils
I meant to write this in my initial post, but I figured this would be a bit closer than last weeks 62 62 blowout. I guess anybody can say that, but it's true.
Djokovic went down a break in the first set. Shortly after this I sold out and backed Monfils. Even though I figured that Novak would come back in the second I felt as though Monfils would take the first set and the market was pricing it as if it was a given that Novak would break back on Monfils. Even in the 1st set market Novak was still favored 7 games in. Which was ridiculous considering the way that Monfils was playing and the fact that he was up a break.
At the beginning of the second set I backed Novak at the start and backed him again after he got an early break. He was broken back and I cursed myself for hanging on to this position. He had some difficult service games, but finally came out on top. I sold my position after Novak broke Monfils in the third set. Monfils looked tired at the beginning of the third set, but got is energy back. Things could get interesting if he could get a chance against Novaks serve.
Murray went up an early break on Simon, but was immediately broken again. Now he is up a break again.
Murray ended up winning this match so it turned out well.
Fish v Nadal
As predicted Fish took down Nadal for the first time in straight sets. He played excellent tennis and Nadal struggled.
Federer v Berdych
From the beginning I backed Fed, however, after watching his play and watching him get down an early break I got out of that position and switched to Berdych. I sold out of this position after Berdych won the first set.
Djokovic v Monfils
I meant to write this in my initial post, but I figured this would be a bit closer than last weeks 62 62 blowout. I guess anybody can say that, but it's true.
Djokovic went down a break in the first set. Shortly after this I sold out and backed Monfils. Even though I figured that Novak would come back in the second I felt as though Monfils would take the first set and the market was pricing it as if it was a given that Novak would break back on Monfils. Even in the 1st set market Novak was still favored 7 games in. Which was ridiculous considering the way that Monfils was playing and the fact that he was up a break.
At the beginning of the second set I backed Novak at the start and backed him again after he got an early break. He was broken back and I cursed myself for hanging on to this position. He had some difficult service games, but finally came out on top. I sold my position after Novak broke Monfils in the third set. Monfils looked tired at the beginning of the third set, but got is energy back. Things could get interesting if he could get a chance against Novaks serve.
Cincy Masters - Friday
Tomorrow or Today, depending on where you're at there is only one Men's single match. Fish v Nadal.
Men's Tournament
Favorites
Favorites
Murray @ 1.2 v Simon - I had a tough time with this one, because Simon is a great tennis player and has played great during this tournament, while Murray has struggled. However, I feel Murray will find a way to make it to the semis after a first round loss in Montreal. It could be close so get out while you can.
Federer @ 1.27 v Berdych
Djokovic @ 1.09 v Monfils
Dogs
Fish @ 2.46 v Nadal -- Fish has been playing great all year, and really great since Wimbledon. He keeps looking better and better and I think this is a great time for him to take out a top 4 guy.
Federer @ 1.27 v Berdych
Djokovic @ 1.09 v Monfils
Dogs
Fish @ 2.46 v Nadal -- Fish has been playing great all year, and really great since Wimbledon. He keeps looking better and better and I think this is a great time for him to take out a top 4 guy.
Women's Tournament
I still don't have anything on the women's front. If I see something in before tomorrow's matches start, I'll definitely update.
Thursday, 18 August 2011
Final Tally on the Day! +38% and 8 of 9 matches called correctly
So, today was the 4th day in a row that I made money in the markets, and the 4th day in a row anyone would have made money had they followed my picks. I'm pretty full of myself at the moment, but I hope that I can continue to deliver quality results.
I will try to put the picks up for tomorrow before I go to sleep tonight, but we shall see. I'm waiting for BetFair to open the markets on them.
As of right now I'm thinking Fish, Federer, Djokovic, and undecided on Murray/Simon. Before I make these final I want to see how the market perceives them.
I will try to put the picks up for tomorrow before I go to sleep tonight, but we shall see. I'm waiting for BetFair to open the markets on them.
As of right now I'm thinking Fish, Federer, Djokovic, and undecided on Murray/Simon. Before I make these final I want to see how the market perceives them.
Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Thurs)
Nadal v Verdasco
Rafa went down an early break to Verdasco. I've seen Rafa do this several times, but he usually bounces back so I took the opportunity to double down.
Nadal immediately broke back in a game in which Verdasco, had three double faults. I'm back in the money with this position.
Shockingly Nadal double faulted on triple break point to put him back a break down. My position is back out of the money.
Nadal is looking shaky and I'm considering back Verdasco, but I want to see a few more games. Verdasco is falling apart as he was just broken back.... Not so much on Rafa's brilliance but on his own misgivings.
Verdasco had 2 break points on Rafa's next serve, but lost 4 straight points to lose the game. At this point I backed Rafa, because players often fall apart after losing chances like that. However, he held so I took a small loss.
Murray v Bogomolov
Murray took Bogo's first and second service game off him, so this is looking like a good position to be in.
When Murray was up a break in the second set I sold out at 1.03. Perfect time to do so, as he later got broke. He went on to win, but I already had my profits.
Nicolas Almagro v Tomas Berdych
I moved out of this position after Berdych broke Almagro early in the first set for a sizable loss. Berdych looked to be playing well and that makes him dangerous.
Mardy Fish v Richard Gasquet
The Fish Gasquet match was pretty tight, but Fish took the first set. I sold out after the first set.
Gilles Simon v David Ferrer
So far this match is on serve at 4-3 Simon. It will be tight and I think if Simon gets up a break I will sell out quickly.
Ferrer just double faulted to lose the first set. I'm going to sell out here for a nice gain.
Novak Djokovic v Radek Stepanek
I backed Novak to win the first set @ 1.11, then used the original bet, plus the winnings to bet on Novak in the second set. He won both 6-3, 6-3 so it turned out great.
Tally for the day!
So far today, if you had backed each of my picks and held you'd have a gain of 30.66% of the total amount. Not a bad day again so far. Luckily Simon pulled it out in the 3rd set.
I didn't do that, because I am a trader. However, I have similar results. I am up 31.78% on the day.
We still have a few matches to go!
Rafa went down an early break to Verdasco. I've seen Rafa do this several times, but he usually bounces back so I took the opportunity to double down.
Nadal immediately broke back in a game in which Verdasco, had three double faults. I'm back in the money with this position.
Shockingly Nadal double faulted on triple break point to put him back a break down. My position is back out of the money.
Nadal is looking shaky and I'm considering back Verdasco, but I want to see a few more games. Verdasco is falling apart as he was just broken back.... Not so much on Rafa's brilliance but on his own misgivings.
Verdasco had 2 break points on Rafa's next serve, but lost 4 straight points to lose the game. At this point I backed Rafa, because players often fall apart after losing chances like that. However, he held so I took a small loss.
Murray v Bogomolov
Murray took Bogo's first and second service game off him, so this is looking like a good position to be in.
When Murray was up a break in the second set I sold out at 1.03. Perfect time to do so, as he later got broke. He went on to win, but I already had my profits.
Nicolas Almagro v Tomas Berdych
I moved out of this position after Berdych broke Almagro early in the first set for a sizable loss. Berdych looked to be playing well and that makes him dangerous.
Mardy Fish v Richard Gasquet
The Fish Gasquet match was pretty tight, but Fish took the first set. I sold out after the first set.
Gilles Simon v David Ferrer
So far this match is on serve at 4-3 Simon. It will be tight and I think if Simon gets up a break I will sell out quickly.
Ferrer just double faulted to lose the first set. I'm going to sell out here for a nice gain.
Novak Djokovic v Radek Stepanek
I backed Novak to win the first set @ 1.11, then used the original bet, plus the winnings to bet on Novak in the second set. He won both 6-3, 6-3 so it turned out great.
Tally for the day!
So far today, if you had backed each of my picks and held you'd have a gain of 30.66% of the total amount. Not a bad day again so far. Luckily Simon pulled it out in the 3rd set.
I didn't do that, because I am a trader. However, I have similar results. I am up 31.78% on the day.
We still have a few matches to go!
Cincy Masters - Day 4
My picks for today are as follows.
Men's Tournament
Favorites -- in order of play
11AM EST/4PM GMT
Rafael Nadal @ 1.16 v Fernando Verdasco
Andy Murray @ 1.27 v Alex Bogomolov -- On this one I'd watch how Murray is playing. His play in North America has been terrible this year, and he only beat Nalbandian in the first round because Nalbandian was playing even worse than Murray. I think he'll bounce back in this one, but you never know what could happen so watch for Murray's level or errors and serve percentage.
Mardy Fish @ 1.49 v Richard Gasquet -- I normally would like to take Gasquet on this one because I think it's a really favorable price, but Fish has been on a tear lately I and I don't want to go against that.
Novak Djokovic @1.07 v Radek Stepanek -- I'm going to bet Novak in each successive set. The first set is going off at 1.11, so I would recommend that, however, if Stepanek takes a set of Novak I'm going to bet bigger on the second and third sets, unless something looks terribly wrong.
Roger Federer @ 1.13 v James Blake -- While Blake is playing well and everyone seems to think that Federer is on the decline, he played beautifully versus del Potro and he's looking hungry leading up to the US Open. Roger also usually plays really great in the lead-up tourneys to majors. If Roger wins the first set, I will move out of this position and use the winnings to put on the second set line.
Gael Monfils @ 1.85 v Philip Kohlschreiber -- Last night this was going off at 1.98. I got in then. This was one of those situations where I felt like the line was too good to be true. Therefore I will be sure to move out of this position if it looks like Monfils is struggling. Sometimes the French fall out of leadup tourneys early (ahem, Tsonga in Cincy and Eastbourne this year).
Dogs
Nicolas Almagro @ 2.6 v Tomas Berdych
Gilles Simon @ 2.42 v David Ferrer
Again, watch the way these guys play and take wins and losses when we feel the need to.
Nothing on the women's front. I can't bring myself to watch women's tennis with the same intensity as men's tennis, so my ability to make picks on it is tough. Plus women's tennis is incredibly unpredictable. I'll try to live blog during matches.
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
Cincy Masters - Day 3 Partial Results
So far all my matches have held up except for Tsonga. The Serena Williams match was a loss, but since it was a walkover all bets are off.
However, since Tsonga lost and Serena didn't play the total gain for the day is only a couple percent. Since this is the case, I'm going to add a few more plays to my bets for today.
I'm going to back Djokovic in both the first set and the second set for as well as the whole match.
I'll be back tomorrow to make picks.
Update
Novak won in straight sets so I ended the day up around 4%. Not a great day, but remember any gain is better than a day of losses. Today was a relatively low risk low reward day. Since I couldn't actually trade on the matches as I was on a flight I didn't want to outright back any underdogs.
However, since Tsonga lost and Serena didn't play the total gain for the day is only a couple percent. Since this is the case, I'm going to add a few more plays to my bets for today.
I'm going to back Djokovic in both the first set and the second set for as well as the whole match.
I'll be back tomorrow to make picks.
Update
Novak won in straight sets so I ended the day up around 4%. Not a great day, but remember any gain is better than a day of losses. Today was a relatively low risk low reward day. Since I couldn't actually trade on the matches as I was on a flight I didn't want to outright back any underdogs.
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