Earlier in the day I made a trade from my mobile, I was in class so I couldn't use my computer or post the idea. When I saw that Venus Williams went down a set to Date-Krumm, I back Venus knowing that she would pull through at least to push it to 3 sets. I sold out after she won set 2.
Currently watching Mardy Fish v Denis Istomin. I believe this will be a 3 set win for Fish, but Istomin is a heavy hitter. Istomin just battled out of being down 40-15 in his opening game.
Fish was broken after his almost break on Istomin. I took Fish at 1.6 after he was broken. We'll see how it moves as the match progresses.
As predicted in my earlier post Wawrinka went down on his opening game against Bolelli. I backed Wawrinka at 1.40. So we'll also see how that plays out. Wawrinka broke back during game 4 and I laid out at 1.2 for a nice 11.6% profit on that trade. Beautiful!
Fish breaks back on Istomins serve on game 8. I was able to lay at 1.25 for a nice profit. So far so good today.
Often times this strategy can backfire, especially in 3 set tournaments that don't matter as much. But as I stated before 5 set matches and Grand Slams are different. Good players dig deeper and weaker players crumble under pressure more often. You have to know the players you're dealing with this strategy will not work in every situation.
My next move was to back Fish at the beginning of the tie-breaker at 1.36. Once he went up 6-3, I sold off at 1.2 for another nice profit. Even though I could've waiting for him to win for a higher profit, why not take the good profit when you can. Although he ended up winning the tie-breaker it went to 6-6 before he finally won it.
I'm done trading the Fish match and am now focused on Wawrinka/Bolelli. Wawrinka ended up dropping the first set in the tie-breaker, so I've backed Wawrinka at 1.72 and will exit this position as soon as I see a good opening. Unfortunately for me Wawrinka dropped his first service game in the second set and has gone up 2.6+. I still believe that the tide will turn for Wawrinka, but we'll see what happens. I'm holding my position on this match for the time being. I decided to further back Wawrinka, at 2.54. If he is able to break back I'll be able to sell out for a nice profit. In game 7 Wawrinka pushed Bolelli to 3 break points. I sold out at 40-15 Wawrinka at 1.80. Although I lost on the first trade I made a nice profit on the other to make an overall profit.
Another good lesson. When backing something, and things get worse. If you are still confident that the player will make a comeback it's a good idea to back him more at a better price. This will cost average you out so that when you sell out you make an even better profit. To do this though you should make sure that you are not going in really deep into your roll on your bets.
Next up.....
Verdasco went down an early break. I backed Verdasco at 2.12 immediately following the break and when he went up 15 - love the next game I cleared the trade at 1.98 for a 7% profit on that stake. I was happy with this move and I've found that when a favorite gets broken early if you back them you'll find a profitable exit shortly after.
A huge mistake I made when watching this match was that I should've backed Haase after the first couple of games. He was playing superbly and Verdasco was not playing that well. If I had backed him at 2.5 and then sold at 2.1 when he had his first break point against Verdasco I would have benefited handsomely.
After Gael Monfils lost his first set to Grega Lemlja I backed him. As soon as he went up an early break I decided to close the trade for a profit.
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