The Final at the ATP World Tour Finals

Tsonga @ 4.3 v Federer

Best of luck!

WTF Friday

Ferrer @ 1.82 v Berdych

WTF Thursday

Happy Thanksgiving for those of you from the States or I guess Canada as they celebrate something similar albeit on a different day.

Rafa @ 2.26 v Jo-Wilfried

Wednesday, Pics WTFs

Berdych @ 1.52 v Tipsarevic - Tipsy got called in late to sub for the injured Murray.  While he'll probably feel lose because he has nothing really to lose he will likely come in underpracticed.  Now that Murray is out Berdych has to feel as though he has a great shot at getting into the semis and even winning this thing.

Tough Day

Somewhat surprising day at the ATP World Tour Finals today.  I wasn't so surprised that Fish lost to Tsonga.  Tsonga has been playing some of the best tennis of his career lately and I've always thought of him as a guy who has a skill level just below the top 4, and above everyone else currently in the top 10.  Similar to how I feel about an in form Soderling and Del Potro.

However, Federer's 6-3 6-0 crushing of Nadal was not expected.  I fully thought this would go to 3 setter and would be a complete toss up with the victor being the one who was able to convert on key points.  I was totally wrong and Fed put on a great show.  He served like a man possessed in the 1st set getting 77% of his first serves in and only dropping 6 total points on service in 5 games.  He ripped a ton of winners and made very few unforced errors.  I can't find stats on this, if anyone knows where they can be found it would be greatly appreciated.  Nadal completely collapsed in the second set receiving a donut from Fed, something that has shockingly happened twice before (Madrid 2009/Wimbledon 2007).  Either way today was an interesting one.

Picks for Wednesday

Picks for Wednesday.....

Fish @ 2.94 v Tsonga
Nadal @ 3.05 v Federer

Day 2 Results at World Tour Finals

Murray lost today against a solid Ferrer.  Even though he was up a break in both sets, he managed to blow his lead and lose in straight sets.  It was a bit of a shocking loss for him as he has pretty much owned Ferrer lately.

In a bizarre match Djokovic beat Berdych.  Berdych jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first set, gifted a break back to Djokovic, then faced another break point to make it even, but he managed to hold and to win the 1st set.  A determined Djokovic took the Berdych's first service game off of him in the second set and held off on some other games to win that set.  In the third, Djokovic got down a break, but then immediately broke back.  He held two other tough services games and even faced a couple of match points in the 12th game.  Berdych's forehand broke down when he really needed it and he wasn't able to convert on the biggest points of the match.  Not surprisingly Novak won the tiebreak 7-3, not surprising considering that Berdych failed to convert a couple of match points.

Day 2 ATP WF Picks

Djokovic @ 1.43 v Berdych -- Djokovic has had a week and a half to rest and I think he'll be ready for this first round match against Berdych.  I feel as though he only pulled out of Paris because he wanted to make sure that he'd be ready for London.  This is a much more important tournament and he didn't want to come into it less than he could.

Murray @ 1.18 v Ferrer -- Murray has yet to win a major, but this is the next best thing.  He wants to round out the year on a positive note and this is his chance.  He also doesn't want to disappoint the home crowd, and players generally play better in their home country.  Just look at how well some lower ranked Frenchman played in Paris two weeks ago.

ATP WF Day 1 results

Nadal won in a tough one, all over match.  After winning the first set decisively he lost the second set, after getting down an early break.  Then he was up a break in the third, then lost two straight service games to go down a break.  He brought it back to even only to face break point again.  After he battled out he managed to get into the tie-breaker and win it there.  Nadal looked shaky at times, but in the end he took the match.  This is classic Nadal, early round match of a tournament where he struggles, but manages to find a way to win.

I'm back! -- ATP World Tour Finals!

Rafael Nadal @ 1.24 v Mardy Fish - Nadal may be a bit rough around the edges at the beginning of this match so I'd recommend double down on Rafa if he gets down a break or a set.


That's all for today.  Good luck.

Last day of Bercy, results for the week

Federer beat Tsonga in straight sets today.  No surprise there since he has been playing great since the 2nd-3rd rounds of Basel.  He played great all week and it'll be interesting to see how he does in London.

This week I made 27 total picks.  15 winners, 12 losers.  For a total of +3.5 units.  So if you were betting £100 on each match you'd be 350 ahead.  I hope that is the case for anyone who checks my blog.

For the first time in months, there isn't an ATP Tour match tomorrow.  There are only Challengers.  I'll be back for the start of The Tour Finals in London though.

Semis Results in Paris

Tough loss today, Isner had 3 match points in the 3rd set and I really thought he was going to convert.  He had some good chances and didn't or couldn't take them.  From my experience seeing a player not convert on those breaks almost always spells disaster.  At this point I had layed out of my position on Isner and I backed Tsonga because I knew that Isner was going to struggle to shake that off and Tsonga was pumped up.  Nonetheless I hope you were able to make some money off of that close match.  Tomorrow....


Federer @ 1.34 v Tsonga -- Fed's never won this tourney and he's got a spark about him these last two weeks and I find it doubtful that he'll lose.

Semi Final Picks

Isner @ 3.1 v Tsonga -- I'd advise trading out of this one at around 2 if Isner takes the first set.  However, I think this is a great price based on how well Isner has been playing basically since Wimbledon.  He's going to continue to be a threat and I predict will be in the top 10 by the middle of next season.

No pick on Berdych v Federer.  If I had to choose I'd say Federer.  I think that Berdych has been all over the place in his last two matches.  At one point against Tipsarevic he was down a double break point in the first set and then came back to win.  He only beat Murray bc Murray beat himself and wasn't playing his best.  Murray made way more unforced errors and lacked the intensity necessary.  However, these two wins that Berdych has had against tough players surely will give him confidence going in against Federer, not to mention that he has beaten Fed in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Even though Fed has the all time record of 9/13 over Berdych.  I won't put any money on this until I get a good feel for the match.  Then I will try to trade in and out 1 or 2 times when I get a feel.  For example if there is a tight first set and Fed loses, I will back him until he gets ahead a break in the 2nd or wins the 2nd in a breaker based on my believe that he'll win the 2nd if he's playing a tight match.

Quarterfinal day results

Was a great day.  Isner won as did Federer.  I was wrong to add Murray to the picks as well looking back.  1.2 was the wrong odds.  If anything I should've taken Berdych (not because I thought he would win) but because the price for him to win was wrong.  He should have been @ 2.5-3.5 not 5.  That is a bit ridiculous.  Also, wished that I could've bet on Djokovic pulling out, that seems like no surprise.  He pulls out and retires more than anybody else in the top 10, or at least it seems that way.  Tough break for Troicki.

Tomorrow's semifinal picks for Federer v Berdych and Tsonga v Isner to follow.

Paris Masters -- Quarter Finals

Tsonga @ 2.08 v Djokovic
Isner @ 3.3 v Ferrer
Federer @ 1.09 v Monaco

At the last minute I've decided to add Murray @ 1.2 v Berdych

Thursday's results

3/3 today.  Pretty good although they were all heavy favorites.  Wish I'd taken Berdych @ 2.12 and Isner @ 2.12 as well, but I didn't unfortunately.

Nonetheless today's gains were 26% on the 3 bets.  I also bet on Isner after Lopez got some break chances in the first set and layed out as soon as he broke in the next game.  Wish I'd have held out longer until he broke Lopez again in the second game.

Thursday in Bercy

Murray @ 1.2 v Roddick
Tsonga @ 1.25 v Seppi
Ferrer @ 1.4 v Dolgopolov

2/2 in Bercy on Thursday

Pretty even day today, both Fish and Dolgopolov won, but Monfils and Simon both lost so it was only slightly profitable.  Surprising to see both of them exit the French tournament so early, but Lopez and Monaco were playing excellently.  At times Simon looked good, but he never recovered from the hole he dug himself in the first game of the first set.  Picks for tomorrow to follow shortly.

Wednesday @ Bercy

Monfils @ 1.45 v Lopez
Simon @ 1.65 v Monaco
Fish @ 1.94 v Mayer
Dolgopolov @ 2.48 v Kohlschreiber

Tuesday's results in Bercy

Today was a good day with Tsonga, Gasquet, Chardy and Lopez winning for me.  They all played in tight matches but come out on top.  Tomorrow's picks soon to follow.

Tuesday in Bercy

Tsonga @ 1.18 v Garcia-Lopez -- It's Tsonga's home country and he's had plenty of rest and plenty of recent matches

Gasquet @ 2 v Anderson -- While Anderson has been doing well and Gasquet hasn't played a match since Metz, I think that he'll get through this one.  This is a nice price for Gasquet at home in Paris.  Although if you can watch gauge how well he's playing and get out accordingly if you feel he's not doing well

Benneteau @ 3 v Roddick -- he hasn't been bounced out of a tourney in his first match in a while, I fell like he's due, plus Benneteau played great today against Raonic.

Young @ 1.84 v Monaco -- Young rolled through the qualies and Monaco is likely tired from a long week

Chardy @ 1.81 v Granollers

Lopez @ 2.26 v Llodra

Day 1, Bercy

I went 1/4 today on the picks.  It was a rough one.  Only Raonic was close to winning.....  Picks for tomorrow to follow

Opening Round, Paris Bercy Masters

Raonic @ 1.68 v Benneteau -- This is too high a price for Raonic against Benneteau, even though it's in France.  I'd have guessed this would've been at 1.5 or lower.

Ferrero @ 2.06 v Mahut -- Way too high for Ferrero doesn't even make sense.

Muller @ 3.25 v Anderson -- Muller's due for a win, and I think he'll get it here.

Kohlschreiber @ 1.92 v Youzhny

Those are the only picks for tomorrow.  Best of luck.

Decent day 3/5

Decent end to a mediocre week.  Tomorrow is a whole new tournament and a whole new set of matches.  Should be exciting.  Will post picks soon.

Finals in Basel/Valencia and Paris qualifies

Granollers @ 1.73 v Monaco
Giraldo @ 1.43 v Paire
Querrey @ 1.78 v Seppi
Young @ 2.96 v Nieminen
Clement @ 3 v Kohlschreiber

0/1 Yesterday....

Del Potro lost in a tough 3 setter today.  I was unable to watch so I can't comment too much about it.  In other news Kei Nishikori took out Djoko in a 3 setter, including a donut in the 3rd.  While Djoko was receiving treatment during the match this is still somewhat shocking.

Tomorrow's picks to come later.

11/5 Semis, Valencia and Basel

Del Potro @ 1.25 v Granollers - I'm posting this early because I think the odds will shift down on this one to around 1.19-1.20 so you can take an early profit before the match even starts.  If you think it'll go the other way, wait on it.  Del Potro is going to end this Cindarella run that Granollers has made the last two years in Valencia.  I still think Del Po is trying to make a great final run to make the year end finals and to get his confidence where it needs to be for rejoining the top 10 next year.

This might be my only pick, bc the other 3 will likely be unfavorable.

11/4 Friday's Results in Europe

Today was a great day in trading and betting.  All four of my picks were winners and convincingly so.  I also spotted some other favorable trades.  After Djoko lost the first set 6-2 I backed him, and layed when he got up a break for a nice 40%+ profit on that trade.  I also got in on Gael Monfils when he was down a set and sold off at the beginning of the 3rd.  Great day!  Picks for tomorrow will be up shortly.

Friday's Picks for Basel/Valencia - Quarterfinals!

Del Potro @ 1.34 v Querrey -- Del Po's making a final surge at the end of the year, and probably has an inkling of a hope that he'll sneak into the World Tour Finals ahead of Fish.  Querrey also looking for something to prove, but I think Del Po will be too much.

Ferrer @ 1.29 v Davydenko -- Ferrer has been very consistent all year which has put him in the top 5.  Davydenko has had a rough year and has been completely inconsistent, he has stuggled against the top 20 let alone the upper echelon of the top 5.

Wawrinka @ 1.79 v Mayer -- Stan is more of a threat than Mayer and the odds should be lower for Stan.  They will likely fall by tomorrow.  Wawa is also more likely to dig deep at home in Basel.

Federer @ 1.16 v Roddick -- Roddick had a tough match today, and will likely be suffering a bit.  He also has a horrid record against Federer, and Federer will dig deep to win at home.

Thursday results in Basel and Spain

Somewhat tough day for the picks, but I got into Wawrinka and doubled down on Roddick when they were both down a set and they came back for a nice profit on the day.

Reflecting on my picks today, I realized that if I was going to choose anyone in the Tsonga/Querrey match I should've taken Querrey and not Tsonga.  Tsonga had just had a run in Vienna, (he never fairs well after being in a tournament final, especially if next tournament is the following week)  and likely wants to be fresh for Paris (his home country).  Tsonga had nothing to prove in Valencia, has firmly put himself into the World Tour Finals and would probably like to do well in his home country's 2nd most prestigious tournament.

Same holds for the Cilic/Granollers match except for the part about wanting to win in his home country.

Other 3 picks won out.

Thursday!!!!!!

Tsonga @ 1.48 v Querrey
Cilic @ 1.37 v Granollers
Del Potro @ 1.36 v Anderson
Monaco @ 1.51 v Fognini
Roddick @ 1.44 v Stepanek

3/6 on Wednesday

Went 3/6 today with a small loss since two of the picks were heavy favorites.  Again my dogs, struggled today.  Not much else to say, I've got to work on picks for tomorrow which I think will be a good day.

Day 3 Basel/Valencia

Raonic @ 1.95 v Cilic

Ferrer @ 1.14 v Pospisil

Del Potro @ 1.21 v Tursunov

Bogomolov @ 2.94 v Lopez

Haas @ 4.6 v Roddick

Giraldo @ 2.84 v Stepanek

Day 2 Results in Spain/Switzerland

Went 0/5 today.  Terrible day for picks, but there were several good trading opportunities.  I backed Almagro after he dropped down a set and a break and greened up when he won the 2nd set for a nice profit.  And I made a few other moves.  Although almost all my picks today were for underdogs today, I didn't manage to pick one of the underdog wins of the day.  Kei Nishikori came back from a set down to beat Tomas Berdych.  I thought about making this pick after Nishikori's recent surge in Asia, but of course I didn't.  Michael Lammer beat Mikhail Youzhny which is kind of a big surprise since there separation in the rankings in a few hundred.  Granollers beat Dolgopolov, but I was on the wrong side of that one.  Juan Monaco beating Almagro was another one that I considered for an underdog pick, but alas I picked all wrong today.  Sometimes you do great, sometimes you do ok, and some days you do absolutely terrible and that was today. However, I'll have picks for tomorrow up shortly and I know they're going to perform better.