Day 1, in a bunch of places

Four tournaments coming online as I write this.  Glad to see the tennis season back in full swing.  Didn't know how to occupy my free time without it.  I only have one pick today, and it is a qualifying match in Doha.

Ward @ 1.97 v Galung

I hope the New Year is good for everyone!

Best,
Jerry

Mubadala Semis Results

Today went down about how my gut had it going, except for the fact that Federer got punked out like a bitch.  I didn't watch and I'm glad because it would have been difficult to see him take such a thrashing.  I wouldn't read too much into it though as it was an exhibition, he hadn't had a match in over a month, and he was facing the world number 1 who had more time off and played a rough match against Monfils the day before.

Rafa's loss to Ferrer was also somewhat expected.  Rafa is burned out.  I believe that he'll drop out of the number 2 spot later this year.  He has mentally crumbled since losing 6 finals to Novak this year.

Picks
Hopman Cup
Richard Gasquet @ 1.04 v Di Wu

That's it.  I feel as though Roger will beat Rafa in UAE, but the odds were too far in his favor, but I'm not making that a pick.

Mudadala Semis

No picks for later today.  Although I see the line on the Djokovic/Federer match is somewhat inconsistent, I still don't want to bet against Federer.

I'd look to see how well each is playing after a few games or even a set and go from there.  Same with Ferrer v Nadal, but I'm not making any official picks.

Results - Mubadala 1/1

The start to the tennis season was a good one.  Djokovic held out to win in 3 although it never seemed like he was in very much danger.  Glad to start the season off with a win.

On another note, some of you may wonder why I'm restarting the year here at the end of the year.  Well in case you are unaware the tennis season pretty much ends with the ATP World Tour Finals in November and Davis Cup at the beginning of December.  Thus this is the beginning.

A post for tomorrow should be up in a few hours.

Tennis is finally back! Mubdala

Tennis is finally back.  I'm thankful that the main sport of my choosing to bet on has a limited amount of time off.  Since the Davis Cup I have been occupying my time betting/trading on NFL football and a limited amount of NBA basketball.  I have had some success in each, but I'm much more confident with my assumptions on Tennis.

I will start the new year, with a new slate of growth.  I'm going to target for a 10% return on every bet made.  Hopefully, I am able to get reach that goal.

Finally Tennis is back at the Mubadala World Tennis Exhibition Tournament.  My first pick is,

Djokovic @ 1.23 v Monfils

Tennis is back after almost a week!!!!! Davis Cup Final day 1

After not seeing tennis since Fed beat Jo in London on Sunday, I've been going through withdrawals and I'm happy to see Davis Cup start later today!

The first rubber is Rafael Nadal v Juan Monaco:  Rafa is the king of Clay and although Monaco is playing great he doesn't stand a chance, Nadal (3-0) @ 1.4 v Monaco.

Rubber 2 - David Ferrer v Juan Martin Del Potro:  Ferrer has a great Davis Cup record and a great clay record.  However, Juan Martin's powerful flat forehands and his two hand backhands are going to be too much for Ferrer tomorrow.  Also, Del Po's desire will be too great.    Del Potro @ 2.68 v Ferrer.

Best!

The Final at the ATP World Tour Finals

Tsonga @ 4.3 v Federer

Best of luck!

WTF Friday

Ferrer @ 1.82 v Berdych

WTF Thursday

Happy Thanksgiving for those of you from the States or I guess Canada as they celebrate something similar albeit on a different day.

Rafa @ 2.26 v Jo-Wilfried

Wednesday, Pics WTFs

Berdych @ 1.52 v Tipsarevic - Tipsy got called in late to sub for the injured Murray.  While he'll probably feel lose because he has nothing really to lose he will likely come in underpracticed.  Now that Murray is out Berdych has to feel as though he has a great shot at getting into the semis and even winning this thing.

Tough Day

Somewhat surprising day at the ATP World Tour Finals today.  I wasn't so surprised that Fish lost to Tsonga.  Tsonga has been playing some of the best tennis of his career lately and I've always thought of him as a guy who has a skill level just below the top 4, and above everyone else currently in the top 10.  Similar to how I feel about an in form Soderling and Del Potro.

However, Federer's 6-3 6-0 crushing of Nadal was not expected.  I fully thought this would go to 3 setter and would be a complete toss up with the victor being the one who was able to convert on key points.  I was totally wrong and Fed put on a great show.  He served like a man possessed in the 1st set getting 77% of his first serves in and only dropping 6 total points on service in 5 games.  He ripped a ton of winners and made very few unforced errors.  I can't find stats on this, if anyone knows where they can be found it would be greatly appreciated.  Nadal completely collapsed in the second set receiving a donut from Fed, something that has shockingly happened twice before (Madrid 2009/Wimbledon 2007).  Either way today was an interesting one.

Picks for Wednesday

Picks for Wednesday.....

Fish @ 2.94 v Tsonga
Nadal @ 3.05 v Federer

Day 2 Results at World Tour Finals

Murray lost today against a solid Ferrer.  Even though he was up a break in both sets, he managed to blow his lead and lose in straight sets.  It was a bit of a shocking loss for him as he has pretty much owned Ferrer lately.

In a bizarre match Djokovic beat Berdych.  Berdych jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first set, gifted a break back to Djokovic, then faced another break point to make it even, but he managed to hold and to win the 1st set.  A determined Djokovic took the Berdych's first service game off of him in the second set and held off on some other games to win that set.  In the third, Djokovic got down a break, but then immediately broke back.  He held two other tough services games and even faced a couple of match points in the 12th game.  Berdych's forehand broke down when he really needed it and he wasn't able to convert on the biggest points of the match.  Not surprisingly Novak won the tiebreak 7-3, not surprising considering that Berdych failed to convert a couple of match points.

Day 2 ATP WF Picks

Djokovic @ 1.43 v Berdych -- Djokovic has had a week and a half to rest and I think he'll be ready for this first round match against Berdych.  I feel as though he only pulled out of Paris because he wanted to make sure that he'd be ready for London.  This is a much more important tournament and he didn't want to come into it less than he could.

Murray @ 1.18 v Ferrer -- Murray has yet to win a major, but this is the next best thing.  He wants to round out the year on a positive note and this is his chance.  He also doesn't want to disappoint the home crowd, and players generally play better in their home country.  Just look at how well some lower ranked Frenchman played in Paris two weeks ago.

ATP WF Day 1 results

Nadal won in a tough one, all over match.  After winning the first set decisively he lost the second set, after getting down an early break.  Then he was up a break in the third, then lost two straight service games to go down a break.  He brought it back to even only to face break point again.  After he battled out he managed to get into the tie-breaker and win it there.  Nadal looked shaky at times, but in the end he took the match.  This is classic Nadal, early round match of a tournament where he struggles, but manages to find a way to win.

I'm back! -- ATP World Tour Finals!

Rafael Nadal @ 1.24 v Mardy Fish - Nadal may be a bit rough around the edges at the beginning of this match so I'd recommend double down on Rafa if he gets down a break or a set.


That's all for today.  Good luck.

Last day of Bercy, results for the week

Federer beat Tsonga in straight sets today.  No surprise there since he has been playing great since the 2nd-3rd rounds of Basel.  He played great all week and it'll be interesting to see how he does in London.

This week I made 27 total picks.  15 winners, 12 losers.  For a total of +3.5 units.  So if you were betting £100 on each match you'd be 350 ahead.  I hope that is the case for anyone who checks my blog.

For the first time in months, there isn't an ATP Tour match tomorrow.  There are only Challengers.  I'll be back for the start of The Tour Finals in London though.

Semis Results in Paris

Tough loss today, Isner had 3 match points in the 3rd set and I really thought he was going to convert.  He had some good chances and didn't or couldn't take them.  From my experience seeing a player not convert on those breaks almost always spells disaster.  At this point I had layed out of my position on Isner and I backed Tsonga because I knew that Isner was going to struggle to shake that off and Tsonga was pumped up.  Nonetheless I hope you were able to make some money off of that close match.  Tomorrow....


Federer @ 1.34 v Tsonga -- Fed's never won this tourney and he's got a spark about him these last two weeks and I find it doubtful that he'll lose.

Semi Final Picks

Isner @ 3.1 v Tsonga -- I'd advise trading out of this one at around 2 if Isner takes the first set.  However, I think this is a great price based on how well Isner has been playing basically since Wimbledon.  He's going to continue to be a threat and I predict will be in the top 10 by the middle of next season.

No pick on Berdych v Federer.  If I had to choose I'd say Federer.  I think that Berdych has been all over the place in his last two matches.  At one point against Tipsarevic he was down a double break point in the first set and then came back to win.  He only beat Murray bc Murray beat himself and wasn't playing his best.  Murray made way more unforced errors and lacked the intensity necessary.  However, these two wins that Berdych has had against tough players surely will give him confidence going in against Federer, not to mention that he has beaten Fed in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Even though Fed has the all time record of 9/13 over Berdych.  I won't put any money on this until I get a good feel for the match.  Then I will try to trade in and out 1 or 2 times when I get a feel.  For example if there is a tight first set and Fed loses, I will back him until he gets ahead a break in the 2nd or wins the 2nd in a breaker based on my believe that he'll win the 2nd if he's playing a tight match.

Quarterfinal day results

Was a great day.  Isner won as did Federer.  I was wrong to add Murray to the picks as well looking back.  1.2 was the wrong odds.  If anything I should've taken Berdych (not because I thought he would win) but because the price for him to win was wrong.  He should have been @ 2.5-3.5 not 5.  That is a bit ridiculous.  Also, wished that I could've bet on Djokovic pulling out, that seems like no surprise.  He pulls out and retires more than anybody else in the top 10, or at least it seems that way.  Tough break for Troicki.

Tomorrow's semifinal picks for Federer v Berdych and Tsonga v Isner to follow.

Paris Masters -- Quarter Finals

Tsonga @ 2.08 v Djokovic
Isner @ 3.3 v Ferrer
Federer @ 1.09 v Monaco

At the last minute I've decided to add Murray @ 1.2 v Berdych

Thursday's results

3/3 today.  Pretty good although they were all heavy favorites.  Wish I'd taken Berdych @ 2.12 and Isner @ 2.12 as well, but I didn't unfortunately.

Nonetheless today's gains were 26% on the 3 bets.  I also bet on Isner after Lopez got some break chances in the first set and layed out as soon as he broke in the next game.  Wish I'd have held out longer until he broke Lopez again in the second game.

Thursday in Bercy

Murray @ 1.2 v Roddick
Tsonga @ 1.25 v Seppi
Ferrer @ 1.4 v Dolgopolov

2/2 in Bercy on Thursday

Pretty even day today, both Fish and Dolgopolov won, but Monfils and Simon both lost so it was only slightly profitable.  Surprising to see both of them exit the French tournament so early, but Lopez and Monaco were playing excellently.  At times Simon looked good, but he never recovered from the hole he dug himself in the first game of the first set.  Picks for tomorrow to follow shortly.

Wednesday @ Bercy

Monfils @ 1.45 v Lopez
Simon @ 1.65 v Monaco
Fish @ 1.94 v Mayer
Dolgopolov @ 2.48 v Kohlschreiber

Tuesday's results in Bercy

Today was a good day with Tsonga, Gasquet, Chardy and Lopez winning for me.  They all played in tight matches but come out on top.  Tomorrow's picks soon to follow.

Tuesday in Bercy

Tsonga @ 1.18 v Garcia-Lopez -- It's Tsonga's home country and he's had plenty of rest and plenty of recent matches

Gasquet @ 2 v Anderson -- While Anderson has been doing well and Gasquet hasn't played a match since Metz, I think that he'll get through this one.  This is a nice price for Gasquet at home in Paris.  Although if you can watch gauge how well he's playing and get out accordingly if you feel he's not doing well

Benneteau @ 3 v Roddick -- he hasn't been bounced out of a tourney in his first match in a while, I fell like he's due, plus Benneteau played great today against Raonic.

Young @ 1.84 v Monaco -- Young rolled through the qualies and Monaco is likely tired from a long week

Chardy @ 1.81 v Granollers

Lopez @ 2.26 v Llodra

Day 1, Bercy

I went 1/4 today on the picks.  It was a rough one.  Only Raonic was close to winning.....  Picks for tomorrow to follow

Opening Round, Paris Bercy Masters

Raonic @ 1.68 v Benneteau -- This is too high a price for Raonic against Benneteau, even though it's in France.  I'd have guessed this would've been at 1.5 or lower.

Ferrero @ 2.06 v Mahut -- Way too high for Ferrero doesn't even make sense.

Muller @ 3.25 v Anderson -- Muller's due for a win, and I think he'll get it here.

Kohlschreiber @ 1.92 v Youzhny

Those are the only picks for tomorrow.  Best of luck.

Decent day 3/5

Decent end to a mediocre week.  Tomorrow is a whole new tournament and a whole new set of matches.  Should be exciting.  Will post picks soon.

Finals in Basel/Valencia and Paris qualifies

Granollers @ 1.73 v Monaco
Giraldo @ 1.43 v Paire
Querrey @ 1.78 v Seppi
Young @ 2.96 v Nieminen
Clement @ 3 v Kohlschreiber

0/1 Yesterday....

Del Potro lost in a tough 3 setter today.  I was unable to watch so I can't comment too much about it.  In other news Kei Nishikori took out Djoko in a 3 setter, including a donut in the 3rd.  While Djoko was receiving treatment during the match this is still somewhat shocking.

Tomorrow's picks to come later.

11/5 Semis, Valencia and Basel

Del Potro @ 1.25 v Granollers - I'm posting this early because I think the odds will shift down on this one to around 1.19-1.20 so you can take an early profit before the match even starts.  If you think it'll go the other way, wait on it.  Del Potro is going to end this Cindarella run that Granollers has made the last two years in Valencia.  I still think Del Po is trying to make a great final run to make the year end finals and to get his confidence where it needs to be for rejoining the top 10 next year.

This might be my only pick, bc the other 3 will likely be unfavorable.

11/4 Friday's Results in Europe

Today was a great day in trading and betting.  All four of my picks were winners and convincingly so.  I also spotted some other favorable trades.  After Djoko lost the first set 6-2 I backed him, and layed when he got up a break for a nice 40%+ profit on that trade.  I also got in on Gael Monfils when he was down a set and sold off at the beginning of the 3rd.  Great day!  Picks for tomorrow will be up shortly.

Friday's Picks for Basel/Valencia - Quarterfinals!

Del Potro @ 1.34 v Querrey -- Del Po's making a final surge at the end of the year, and probably has an inkling of a hope that he'll sneak into the World Tour Finals ahead of Fish.  Querrey also looking for something to prove, but I think Del Po will be too much.

Ferrer @ 1.29 v Davydenko -- Ferrer has been very consistent all year which has put him in the top 5.  Davydenko has had a rough year and has been completely inconsistent, he has stuggled against the top 20 let alone the upper echelon of the top 5.

Wawrinka @ 1.79 v Mayer -- Stan is more of a threat than Mayer and the odds should be lower for Stan.  They will likely fall by tomorrow.  Wawa is also more likely to dig deep at home in Basel.

Federer @ 1.16 v Roddick -- Roddick had a tough match today, and will likely be suffering a bit.  He also has a horrid record against Federer, and Federer will dig deep to win at home.

Thursday results in Basel and Spain

Somewhat tough day for the picks, but I got into Wawrinka and doubled down on Roddick when they were both down a set and they came back for a nice profit on the day.

Reflecting on my picks today, I realized that if I was going to choose anyone in the Tsonga/Querrey match I should've taken Querrey and not Tsonga.  Tsonga had just had a run in Vienna, (he never fairs well after being in a tournament final, especially if next tournament is the following week)  and likely wants to be fresh for Paris (his home country).  Tsonga had nothing to prove in Valencia, has firmly put himself into the World Tour Finals and would probably like to do well in his home country's 2nd most prestigious tournament.

Same holds for the Cilic/Granollers match except for the part about wanting to win in his home country.

Other 3 picks won out.

Thursday!!!!!!

Tsonga @ 1.48 v Querrey
Cilic @ 1.37 v Granollers
Del Potro @ 1.36 v Anderson
Monaco @ 1.51 v Fognini
Roddick @ 1.44 v Stepanek

3/6 on Wednesday

Went 3/6 today with a small loss since two of the picks were heavy favorites.  Again my dogs, struggled today.  Not much else to say, I've got to work on picks for tomorrow which I think will be a good day.

Day 3 Basel/Valencia

Raonic @ 1.95 v Cilic

Ferrer @ 1.14 v Pospisil

Del Potro @ 1.21 v Tursunov

Bogomolov @ 2.94 v Lopez

Haas @ 4.6 v Roddick

Giraldo @ 2.84 v Stepanek

Day 2 Results in Spain/Switzerland

Went 0/5 today.  Terrible day for picks, but there were several good trading opportunities.  I backed Almagro after he dropped down a set and a break and greened up when he won the 2nd set for a nice profit.  And I made a few other moves.  Although almost all my picks today were for underdogs today, I didn't manage to pick one of the underdog wins of the day.  Kei Nishikori came back from a set down to beat Tomas Berdych.  I thought about making this pick after Nishikori's recent surge in Asia, but of course I didn't.  Michael Lammer beat Mikhail Youzhny which is kind of a big surprise since there separation in the rankings in a few hundred.  Granollers beat Dolgopolov, but I was on the wrong side of that one.  Juan Monaco beating Almagro was another one that I considered for an underdog pick, but alas I picked all wrong today.  Sometimes you do great, sometimes you do ok, and some days you do absolutely terrible and that was today. However, I'll have picks for tomorrow up shortly and I know they're going to perform better.

Day 2 picks in Spain/Switzerland

Verdasco @ 3.3 v Ferrer
Kunitsyn @ 4.1 v Ferrero
Gulbis @ 2.12 v Querrey
Dolgopolov @ 1.89 v Granollers
Muller @ 2.2 v Seppi


Happy trading!

Day 1 results 2/4. Today's ROI = 49.25%

Today was pretty good, but could have been better.

Troicki lost a close one to Baghdatis.  He was up a set and had chances in the 2nd set tiebreaker.

Garcia-Lopez lost in straight sets, but the first set ended in a tiebreaker.

Fognini won in straight sets, which was nice to see after his struggles lately.

Pospisil showed some strength that he shows from time to time.  He had match points in Isner's last service game in the 3rd set, but didn't fold in the tie-breaker.  I faced a match point in the breaker but fought back to win the set and take the match.

Tomorrow's picks will be up soon.

Day 1 Basel Indoors, Valencia Open

Basel
Troicki @ 2.32 v Baghdatis - Maybe I haven't learned my lesson with Troicki as he hasn't been on form since before the US Open, but this price is somewhat illogical, so I had to take it.

Young @ 2.52 v Melzer

Valencia
Fognini @ 1.77 v Gimeno-Traver
Garcia Lopez @ 1.67 v Mahut
Pospisil @ 4.2 v Isner

Sunday, Final picks. No Qualifiers

Tsonga @ 2.12 v Del Potro
Cilic @ 2.72 v Tipsarevic

Day 4 results/Day 5 picks

Brutal day going 0/3 today.  I locked in profits when Jarkko went up a set.  I knew that he was probably tired from being in the Finals of Stockholm and he was lucky to take the first break off of Tsonga.

Tomorrow's picks
Bogomolov @ 1.31 v Lajovic
Starace at 7.2 v Tipsarevic

Anderson @ 2.12 v Melzer
Malisse @ 4.4 v Tsonga


Good luck... Happy trading.

Day 4 picks Vienna/St Petersburg

Jarkko Nieminen @ 3.55 v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Stepanek @ 1.26 v Brands
Berrer @ 6.6 v Tipsarevic

Day 3 results in Austria/Russia

Only went 1/3 today.  Should've been 2/3, but somehow Davydenko up two breaks in the third set and serving for the match twice lost in a third set tie breaker.  It's craziness, but that is the beauty of tennis.  Tomorrow's picks will be posted shortly.

Day three in Austria and Russia

I went 1/2 today for a nice profit since Fognini won.  Here are tomorrow's picks plus the Robin Haase one from today.

Davydenko @ 1.57 v Darcis
Anderson @ 2.44 v Baghdatis
Rochus @ 4.5 v Tipsarevic

St. Petersburg/Vienna Day 2

Robin Haase @ 1.76 v Jarkko Nieminen
James Blake @ 1.49 v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Fabio Fognini @ 2.4 v Tommy Robredo

Results Day 1 of St. Petersburg and Vienna

Had a tough start to this week.  My picks went 3/5.  Dolgopolov served horribly and was subsequently shelled.  Somehow Simon after being up a set and having several break opportunities had a lapse and got broken in his last service game of set 2 and first service game of set 3.  That coupled with his serve and he was able to hold on for the win.

Hopefully tomorrow is better.

St Pete and Vienna

St. Petersburg
Dolgopolov @ 1.3 v Sela
Simon @ 1.2 v Mannarino

Vienna
Baghdatis @ 1.21 v Sweeting
Anderson  @1.29 v Haider-Maurer
qualifing - Haas @ 1.24 v Ram

Finals, Stockholm/Moscow - Results

So I went 0/2 on my picks today.  Troicki got schooled by Tipsarevic, and the way he's been playing lately that's really no surprise.  I should not have had a pick on that match, but Troicki at the price he was at seemed favorable.  Jarkko, seemed like a good pick and after losing the first set, and winning the second he had Monfils on the ropes in his first two service games, after he failed to convert those break opportunities he completely fell apart.  I got out of my position after he failed to break in Monfils' second serve game.  I thought that might mentally plague him and it did, as he immediately was broken, so I had a slight win on that game.

I hope others caught that as well.

Picks for tomorrow out soon.

Finals, Stockholm/Moscow

Take both dogs, Jarkko and Troicki! Odds will follow.

Nieminen @ 3.7 v Monfils
Troicki @ 3.25 v Tipsarevic

Semis results

Went two for two today. However I traded out of Raonic when he was up a set and a break against Monfils. Never ceases to amaze me. Davydenko didnt put up much of a fight which I found surprising. I like many others take his former greatness too seriously.

Semis in Stockholm and Moscow

Tomorrow's Semi Final matches in both Moscow and Stockholm offer some opportunities for every player that is left.  None is an overwhelming favorite, which is often a norm in tennis tournaments.  Below are my picks for tomorrow.

Troicki @ 1.7 v Chardy
Davydenko @ 2.78 v Tipsarevic
Raonic @ 2.12 v Monfils
Nieminen @ 2.38 v Blake

Friday

I didn't have any picks today, thus the lack of a post.  In the future I will try to make a post that says at least that.

Day 4 Picks

Picks

Monfils @ 1.59 v Tomic
Tursunov @ 2.34 v Benneteau
Muller @ 1.88 v Kohlschreiber

I may add more picks before matches tomorrow.

Day 3 results

Today was a good day for my picks and trading....

I won all my picks except for Tommy Haas losing to Kevin Anderson after being up a set, and losing two tights sets after that.  Anderson served like a monster throughout the match with an 81% first serve.

James Blake won the other dog of the day.  I was mistaken about Chardy v Dolgopolov.  That match isn't until later in the week.  Please strike that pick if you're following as I will likely reevaluate it.  If you've already bet it, you can lay off on it now or wait closer to the match as you'll likely lay for a small profit nearer to the match.

Day 3 Stockholm/Moscow

Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.43 v Ryan Sweeting
Tomic @ 1.37 v Zopp
James Blake @ 4.2 v Del Potro
Chardy @ 3.05 v Dolgopolov
Haas @ 2.96 v Anderson
Troicki @ 1.13 v Riba
Davydenko @ 1.46 v Gabashvili

Day 2 - Moscow, Stockholm, results

Went 1/3 yesterday.  Tough loss having Istomin lose in the qualifier.

Today's picks
Moscow
Chardy @ 1.43 v Starace

Stockholm
Anderson @ 1.31 v Garcia-Lopez
Blake @ 1.49 v Rochus
Nalbandian @ 1.3 v Malisse
Milos Raonic @ 2.3 v Baghdatis
Robredo @ 2.18 v Kamke

New week, new tournaments, Stockholm and Moscow

Stockholm

Haas @ 1.71 v Devvarman


Moscow

Andreev @ 2.62 v Seppi
Istomin @ 1.21 v Lajovic

Semi Finals

Andy Murray (2-0 sets) @ 1.37 v Kei Nishikori
F. Lopez @ 2.28 v Ferrer

Friday's Shanghai picks

F. Lopez @ 2.36 v Mayer
Dolgopolov @ 1.6 v Nishikori
David Ferrer @ 1.73 v Roddick

Shanghai Day 3

Dolgopolov @ 1.26 v Ramos
Murray (2-0 sets) @ 1.27 v Tursunov
Tsonga @ 1.17 v Nishikori

Round day 2

After a great start to day 1, my day 2 has been almost a total bust.  My picks went 1/5 today, with my only winner being Dolgopolov.

Shockingly enough to me, Haase lost to Nishikori after being up a set and a break.  Not to mention that because he donuted Nishikori in the first set and lost sets 2 and 3 by close margins, he actually won 17 games, to Nishikori's 14 games.

Not sure what is going on with Troicki at the moment, he can't seem to come up with wins either.

Alas, I'll have more picks for tomorrow out later today.

Shanghai Masters 1000 - Day 2

Picks for tomorrows matches

1.  Tipsarevic @ 1.56 v F. Lopez -- While tipsy is the favorite here he has been beaten by Lopez in 4/5 of there head to head matches.  However, Janko has reached new heights in his quality of play in the last 6 months and I think that this is a great price for this match based on how each of them has been playing in recent weeks.

2.  Ljubicic @ 2.12 v Melzer -- Ljubicic has been playing well of late, and I think that he'll put up another impressive performance against Melzer.

3.  Haase @ 2.18 v Nishikori -- Haase has played weakly in his last two matches and lost both.  He will be looking to get a win back on the board and he should be a favorite against Nishikori.

4.  Dolgopolov @ 1.49 v Kubot -- Dolgo should be a higher favorite that this against Kubot.

5.  Troicki @ 1.49 v Harrison -- Again the odds aren't quite right on this one.  Troicki is probably being discounted because he lost his last two matches to underdogs, however, he lost to up and comer Bernard Tomic, and always a threat Marcos Baghdatis.  Which the odds don't reflect.

I see some other matches that I have interest in such as Raonic/Llodra, Roddick/Dimitrov, Nalbandian/Mayer, Simon/Montanes, Wawrinka/Young, Bellucci/Tursunov, and Bogomolov/Granollers.  I may make an additional post before the matches, so sorry if it's too late or early for you.

Shanghai Masters - Day 1 results

Final match just finished in Shanghai.  Today was a pretty good day, although it could have been even better if one or two of my close losses would have been won.

All 5 of my favorite picks were correct, while only 1 of 3 of my dogs were correct.  The two that I lost were very close three set matches.

I will list tomorrow's picks shortly.

Shanghai Masters 1000 - Day 1

Today is the first day of the Shanghai Masters.  This tournament is more wide open with both Federer and Djokovic pulling out.  While it is still likely that Murray or Nadal will win this event, it does give the opportunity to other players to go deeper into the tournament because they won't have those roadblocks.  I expect many upsets in early and late rounds.

Day 1
Nalbandian @ 1.42 v Gulbis
Robredo @ 1.44 v Bohli
Dimitorv @ 1.61 v Ilhan
Young @ 1.07 v Gong
Roddick @ 1.44 v Lu

Dodig @ 2.46 v Giraldo
Kukushkin @ 2.74 v Montanes
Tomic @ 2.84 v Anderson

While this is a lot of picks I have great faith in them.  Happy trading.

Japan and China Finals....

Marin Cilic @ 3.5 v Tomas Berdych
Andy Murray @ 3.0 v Rafael Nadal

10.8.11 picks

Tokyo

Murray @ 1.32 v Ferrer
Nadal @ 1.32 v Fish


Beijing
Berdych @ 2.1 v Tsonga -- I'd keep an eye on this and see who is playing well at the beginning.  These two are both really good players, but its going to come down to who is serving and playing better.

Ljubicic @ 2.22 v Cilic -- This is similar to the Berdych match, it should be close.

Best of luck

Thursday's picks

Tokyo
Murray @ 1.13 v Bogomolov
Nadal @ 1.07 v Raonic

Tomorrow's picks

Japan

Tipsarevic @ 1.34 v Tursunov
Murray @ 1.19 v Baghdatis
Stepanek @ 1.28 v Chiudnelli

No china picks yet... May update later.

Results 3 of 5

Today was a pretty good day.  I went 3 of 5 and two of the 3 were underdogs.  Unfortunately Haase and Melzer lost, but the others came through for us.

I will have picks out for tomorrow in the next hour.  Happy betting!

China/Japan Day 2

Robin Haase @ 1.52 v Santiago Girlado
Fognini @ 1.82 v Zemlja
Bogomolov @ 2.16 v Nieminen
Dodig @ 2.36 v Monaco
Melzer @ 3.3 v Berdych

First rounds in China and Japan

Beijing Open
Marin Cilic (straight sets win) @ 1.13 v Wu
Michael Llodra @ 4.3 v Fernando Verdasco

Tokyo
Stepanek @ 1.38 v Devvarman

Malaysia and Thailand Finals

Malaysia
Tipsarevic @ 1.68 v Baghdatis

Thailand
Murray @ 1.12 v Young

Asian Picks

Picks for tomorrow --
Back the following......

Jarkko @ 5.1 v Monfils
Simon @ 1.22 v Bachinger
Murray @ 1.12 v Dimitrov
Young @ 1.4 v Soeda
Davydenko @ 2.32 v Tipsarevic
Troicki @ 1.42 v Tursunov
Almagro @ 1.68 v Nishikori

I might add to this so check back....

Picks for tomorrow

Kuala Lumpur
Troicki @ 1.81 v Istomin
Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.22 v Flavio Cipolla
Nikolay Davydenko @ 1.45 v Kubot

Bangkok
Monfils @ 1.29 v Giraldo
Dimitrov @ 1.47 v Bolelli

Tokyo
Sharapova @ 1.81 v Kvitova
Bartoli @ 3.6 v Azarenka
Kanepi @ 3.1 v Radwanska
Kirilenko @ 2.96 v Zvonerava

Tokyo, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur

Jankovic @ 2.16 v Radwanska
King @ 3.15 v Kvitova
Bartoli @ 2.8 v Peng

Today's Matches, Monday 9/25

Malaysian Open

Bogomolov @ 2.74 v Baghdatis
Harrison @ 2.72 v Davydenko
Albert Ramos @ 3.15 v Mikhail Kukushkin
Tomic @ 1.37 v Cipolla
Tursunov # 1.3 v Capdeville

Thailand Open
Igor Andreev @ 2.48 v Donald Young
Ivan Dodig @ 1.58 v Grigor Dimitrov
Souza @ 4 v Hsun Lu


Good luck.... No women's picks at the moment.  I'm taking a bit of a break from them because I am much more confident with men's, I have more knowledge of men's and women's is far too unpredictable, there is no consistency among any of those players.

Moselle Semis

Dolgopolov @ 2.4 v Tsonga

Muller/Gasquet

I just sold off my position in Muller for a 166% profit.  I figured it was worth it to get out now in case Gasquet stages a comeback.

Moselle Open Day 5

Ljubicic @ 1.53 v Sijsling


Update
Gilles Muller @ 4 v Richard Gasquet

Early Friday picks.... Get them in

Korea
Cibulkova @ 1.63 v Hercog

China
Zheng @ 1.74 v Rybarikova

Bucharest
Souza @ 2.28 v Volandri

This weeks results

So far this week has been pretty good.  I was starting to second guess myself as I had somewhat of a bad run at the US Open, losing a bunch of picks after players lost huger leads (Mardy Fish, Roger Federer to name a few).

I'm going to keep track going forward of not only my wins, but also my wins on favorites and wins on underdogs.  I'll compile the data soon (probably after this week) and publish it.  I have a suspicion that I should focus on betting on underdogs, because I feel that is where I could clean up.

Moselle Open Day 4

Tsonga @ 1.04 v Rodrigues
Gasquet @ 1.24 v Rochus

Moselle Open Day 4

Arnaud Clement @ 2.44 v Nicolas Mahut

Guangzhou Open - Quarterfinals

Chanelle Scheepers @ 2.14 v Urszula Radwanska

Moselle Open Day 3

Dolgopolov @ 2.2 v Baghdatis
Ljubicic @ 1.17 v Nicolas Renavand

Picks for today in Seoul

Vania King @ 4.3 v Marion Bartoli
Eleni Danilidou @ 4.8 v Julia Goerges

Moselle Open Day 2

First and maybe last pick for today....

Junqueira @ 8.6 v Mahut

Hansol Korea Open

First pick for this WTA Tournament....

Sema @ 9.2 v Goerges

9.19 Picks

Today, I'm going to be making various picks all day.  So if you want them all either sign up for emails when I post or refresh your screen often.  There are four tournaments going on today that I'm going to cover, Metz, Bucharest, Seoul, and Ghangzhou.  These matches will be starting all day and through the night, so it's could be a wild day for me.

Picks....

Frederico Gil @ 2.14 v Jeremy Chardy
Kunitsyn @ 1.57 v De Schepper

Tashkent Open (Uzbekistan) Final

I've got a pick for the Tashkent Open Final in Uzbekistan.

Ksenia Pervak @ 1.25 v Eva Birnerova

Davis Cup (first results)

So Wawrinka lost to Tomic, in a tough match after being up a set to love.  I bailed out of Wawrinka after the first set because I was unable to watch the match or even check the scores.  Lucky for me.  Even though he lost Federer beat Hewitt and I believe that the Swiss play is still a good one.

Another Pick
Italy @ 1.55 v Chile (if you can get anything matched at Betfair the market is pretty illiquid.  Not really sure why)

Davis Cup first pick

Wawrinka @1.94 v Tomic

updated
Switzerland (tie winner) @ 1.25 v Australia

US Open Final Day

Men's Final

Nadal @ 2.48 v Djokovic -- Nadal has been playing excellently in his last two matches and Djokovic's last match was incredibly difficult both mentally and physically.  With the odds where they are at, this is a quality play.

Federer v Djokovic

Unbelievable match between Federer and Djokovic.  I can't believe that Federer when serving for the match at 40-15 lost.  I hope that anyone who took my advice to back Federer got out when he was up 2 sets to love as I did.  I actually got out of my Federer position and layed him further because I figured if anyone was going to come back it would be Djokovic.  I didn't think he would roll over and lose in three.  I got out of that after the 4th set.

US Open Day 13

Men's Tournament
Roger Federer @ 2.52 v Novak Djokovic -- This is going to be a tight matchup.  These two have played each other 22 times with a slight edge going to Federer.  Obviously Djokovic is playing the year of his life.  Federer has looked great this tournament for the most part, especially in his brutal destruction of Juan Monaco.  I will likely watch the opening few games and make a judgement after 4-6 games of play.  This should be a good match for trading as it will likely be very tight.

Rafael Nadal @ 1.45 v Andy Murray -- Rafa started this tournament off slowly, but he's been playing great since dropping the first 3 games of his match to Gilles Muller.  Again this will be a match decided by a few points, which these two are generally good at winning.  Keep an eye out for ho is playing well and change your position if you feel a changing of the tides.

Women's Tournament
Serena Williams @ 1.28 v Caroline Wozniacki -- Serena has been running over people this probably won't be much different, but I don't believe that she'll lose to Wozniacki in this one.

Samantha Stosur @ 1.23 v Angelique Kerber

US Open Day 12 reaction

Isner v Murray
Not a lot of surprises today.  I thought Isner would give Murray a good run today, but would end up losing to the Scot.  It was a tight match and if Isner hadn't dropped the first set on the last game of the set, I think he would have had a great chance because losing that set basically cost him two as he was immediately broken in the opening game of set 2.

Nadal v Roddick
I figured Nadal would continue to roll today and almost suggest a straight sets win.  I wish I had, but of course hindsight is 20/20.

Decisions on tomorrow will be posted soon.

US Open Day 12

Today I've only got one pick.

Men's Tournament

Rafa Nadal @ 1.26 v Andy Roddick

Day 11 Reaction

Yesterday was a shocking day for me.  I was really surprised to see both Isner and Roddick come through to the Semis.  I was less shocked by Federer winning, as I only chose Tsonga because the odds were out of line.  I knew Janko was a player, but I thought he might rollover for Djokovic.  However, he played great and I think that we're going to see a lot more of him deeper into tournaments.

US Open Day 11

Some tough losses today in Ferrer and Simon, but there were some good trading opportunities within those matches for trading.  It was good to see Murray and Serena win in straights.

Another two picks for today is Djokovic 3-0 @ 1.4 v Tipsarevic and Tsonga @ 3.55 v Federer

US Open results to date

So far my picks in the US Open have been underwhelming.  I've made 44 picks being correct 27 times and wrong 17 times.  While that may look good most of my picks have been favorites and I've come through on very few underdogs.  This amounts to a -14.5% return on money wagered (ROMW).  For instance if you had bet £10 on each of my picks you'd have wagered £420 and you'd have £365 to show for it.  Even though this is my picking record I am still up over 100% on the tournament because so many times my picks have been really close to winning and I managed to trade out at the correct time.

For example in the last women's round Kuznetsova was up a set and was two games away from closing out the match when Wozniacki made an epic comeback to lose the bet.  I backed Kuz at 3.8 and exited the trade at 1.5 for a 150% profit.  The same day I backed Fish v Tsonga at 2.08.  Again I traded out when he was leading the match.  This is the beauty of trading you can lock in gains when have them and get out when you've made a bad back.  I will continue to strive for good picks, but I preach that you must take gains when you have them.

US Open Day 10 (Day 9 redux)

So yesterday at the US Open didn't happen.  It was the first day in weeks that I hadn't made some sort of trade on a tennis match.  Luckily I was really busy elsewhere, but it felt weird and I hope that the I don't have to experience that feeling again until the season break in December.  I'm staying with my original picks from yesterday and adding some women's picks.


Men's Tournament
David Ferrer @ 1.59 v Andy Roddick
Gilles Simon @ 1.98 v John Isner
A Murray (3-0/Straight sets win) @ 1.61 v Young


Women's Tournament
S Williams @ 1.09 v Pavlychenkova
Petkovic @ 2.92 v Wozniacki

US Open Day 9

Men's Tournament
David Ferrer @ 1.59 v Andy Roddick
Gilles Simon @ 1.98 v John Isner

US Open Day 8 Results

Today was actually a great day for trading, even though I only went 2/4 in my picks and would be -39.2% down on the day of all bets.  However, I got out of Fish when he went up 2 sets to 1 and I got out of Kuznetsova after she was up a set.  Picks for tomorrow to follow.

US Open Day 8

Today's Picks

Men's Tournament
Fish @ 2.08 v Tsonga -- This is going to be a close match, you should watch and feel for the winner and look at the stats of the first few games and decide which direction you want to go.

Djokovic 3-0 straight sets win @ 1.33

Women's Tournament
S Williams @ 1.1 v Ivanovic -- Even if Williams gets down early continue backing
Kuznetsova @ 3.8 v Wozniacki -- Watch on this one, but if it gets close these odds will move down and get out for a profit.

Day 7 Results

Yesterday in terms of betting I was 2/5 and -44.6% on the day.  Luckily I got out of Del Potro after he won the first set and also got out early of both Chela and Benneteau because they looked rough.  I was basically even on the day because of this.

US Open Day 7

Men's Picks
Isner @ 1.16 v Bogomolov
del Potro @ 1.37 @ Simone
Chela @ 2 v Young
Muller @ 1.61 v Kunitsyn
Benneteau @ 3.15 v Roddick

US Open Day 6 Results 5/7 +15.7%

Today was a good day on the betting/trading front.  If you chose just to bet my picks I was up 15.7%.  I moved in and out of positions today a bunch.  First I got out of Karlovic after he won the first set and I held onto Cilic after he lost the first set.  In the Karlovic match I got out because it was a nice profit and I held onto Cilic, because he was playing pretty well.  The rest was easy because they were pretty easy matches for everyone else except for a tight 2nd set for Serena Williams.  I'll have more picks trading advice for tomorrows matches..... stay tuned.

US Open Day 6

Men's Tournament

Marin Cilic @ 5.8 v Roger Federer -- I'd watch and see how these two are playing.  If Cilic is playing good and Federer is making a ton of unforced errors and/or is struggling on his first serve percentage this could be a close match.  If no, get out early and often.

Djokovic wins in straight sets @ 1.27 v Davydenko -- Novak has been killing people.  This will be no different.

Tipsarevic @ 2.78 v Tomas Berdych -- This is another match that you must watch and see how each player is doing.  Make a read and get out when you can for a profit.

Fish @ 1.27 v Anderson -- Fish has been playing great tennis all summer.  There is no reason this match should be any different.

Tsonga @ 1.57 v Verdasco -- Another match that must be watched.

Karlovic @ 1.7 v Dolgopolov -- Watch this one as well and make a read.

Williams @ 1.21 v Azarenka -- Serena has been destroying people lately.  I don't think this match will be any different.  I believe she'll steamroll into the Finals.  If she gets down an early break, set etc I'd back for even more.

Women's Tournament

Day 3, 4, 5 Results

Day 3
Day 3 was a really tough day especially if you weren't doing any trading.  If you just took my picks as bets then the Return on Money Wagered would've been -58.5% (ROMW).  However, since I got out of Sweeting after he won the first set and I backed Bogomolov for more when he lost the first set, and then again when he lost the second set, I only lost a bit of money on Day 3.

Day 4
Day 4 I only had two picks and it was 1/1 and if you bet you'd be down 26%.  I was watching the Tomic match and I got out early in this match because he looked terrible and Cilic looked fierce.  Federer should be on notice.

Day 5
On straight betting I was 2/2 today and ROMW was up 86.5%.  Today was finally back to a winning day.  I also backed Murray down two sets and sold off when he won the 3rd set.  Wish I had held onto that, but I'm happy with the winnings.

US Open Day 5

Another day, more picks.....


Chela @ 2.6 v Darcis
Isner @ 1.13 v Ginepri

That's all for today.....

US Open Day 4

Only two picks today.  Tough day yesterday in terms of picks, but not a bad trading day.  I'll update you with results and reflections later today or tomorrow.

Tomic @ 2.4 v Marin Cilic

Kevin Anderson @ 1.48 v Llodra

US Open Day 3 picks

Trade out early and often if you have the opportunity for profit..

Dogs

Marcos Bahdatis @ 3.5 v John Isner

Ryan Sweeting at 2.46 v Denis Istomin

Lukas Rosol @ 2.42 v Vasek Pospisil

Favs

Robin Soderling @ 1.08 v Louk Sorenson

Nicolas Almagro @ 1.48 v Julien Benneteau

Feliciano Lopez @ 1.1 v Tatsuma Ito

Alex Bogomolov @ 1.11 v Steve Johnson

Robin Haase @ 1.11 v Rui Machado

Marc Gicquel @ 1.43 v Jack Sock

Day 1 results 8/9 +13.1%, Day 2 results 4/7 and -19.8%

So, Monday went okay, the only thing I was wrong about was Troicki who lost in a 5 setter to Alejandro Falla.  Because I choose all favs on Monday it was a good day, but not a huge increase in terms of amount wagered.

Tuesday was a bust, I only picked 4 of 7 correctly and all my dogs lost.  For me it was good because all my dogs had close and tough matches so there was a good opportunity for me to get out of these positions profitably.

US Open Day 2

Below are my picks.  Sorry for the late post.  I'll reflect on yesterday and today in the same post later.

Favs

James Blake @ 1.16 v Jesse Huta Galung

David Nalbandian @ 1.2 v Bobby Reynolds

Nicolas Mahut @ 1.59 v Robert Farah

Gilles Muller @ 1.66 v Edouard Roger Vasselin 2.46

Dmitry Tursunov @ 1.61 v Steve Darcis

Dogs

Ivan Dodig 2.24 v Davydenko

Blaz Kavcic @ 2.92 v Ivan Ljubicic

US Open Day 1

Here are all my picks for today.  I don't have any underdogs in this batch.  Possibly tomorrow.

Men's Tournament

Richard Gasquet  @ 1.24 v Sergiy Stakhovsky

Fabio Fognini @ 1.39 v Horacio Zeballos

Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.14 v Frederico Gil

Mardy Fish 1.06 v Tobias Kamke

Viktor Troicki @ 1.13 v Alejandro Falla

Bernard Tomic @ 1.32 v Michael Yani

Radek Stepanek @ 1.55 v Philipp Kohlschreiber

Kevin Anderson @ 1.18 v Go Soeda

Women's Tournament

Julia Goerges @ 1.3 v Kristina Barrois

Saturday Results +26% 1/1

So, John Isner won in 3 sets today after dropping the first set.  After the first set I doubled down on John Isner and sold off my position after he won the second set.  Even though he wasn't playing great I didn't feel as though he would lose in straights v Benneteau.  I didn't do anything on the Sabine Lisicki match and I only posted it because there were no other men's matches.  I saw it was a blowout.  I'm thinking that I'm only going to make calls on Women's Tennis when I'm really confident of what I am picking.  Women's Tennis is much more unpredictable to me.  US Open day 1 picks soon!

Saturday Picks and Trading Moves

The only pick I'm taking today is John Isner @ 1.26 v Julien Benneteau.

If you want something else to work with today, I'd also trade on the Aravane Rezai @ 6.2 v Sabine Lisicki.  6.2 is far too high for Rezai v Liscki, they've split their last two matches and both went to 3 sets.  This could be a blowout, but it could also be very close.  I'd back Rezai from the start and trade out early.

Friday Results, regular picks down -5.3% or 1/3 trading up

Yesterday I only picked one correctly and that was John Isner beating Andy Roddick.  It was a tight match, which I figured it would be and since the odds didn't reflect how close it would be I chose Isner.  I actually traded out of this position when the 1 set went to a tiebreaker.  It was a good time to take a nice profit, and cut out the risk of Isner losing the set, and giving my position a bad loss

Robin Haase won the first set and I sold out when that happened.  I didn't want to take any chances and I was right to do so.

I sold off on Na Li after her first set loss for a loss on that position.  The market seemed to think she would come back because the price wasn't too bad.

Overall I was up on the day so even though if I bet on each of these I'd be down a bit, I ended up with a good position.

Friday 8/26 Tennis Picks!

Men's Matches
John Isner @ 2.84 v Andy Roddick -- I'm taking this one because I feel that the odds are wrong.  Isner is an up and coming and Roddick is a has been.  I think that Roddick still has a good chance to win this, but it'll be close and there will be a great time to trade out for a nice profit.  Watch ini the early games to see who is serving well.  That is going to be the key in this one.


Robin Haase @ 1.58 v Julien Benneteau


Women's Matches
Na Li @ 1.48 v Petra Cetkovska


Maybe I'll post more in later matches.......

Thursday results -28.4% and 2/5, yet still a winning day for me

From a straight picks standpoint, yesterday wasn't the best.  Robin Haase and Caroline Wozniacki were my only winners.  Marcos Baghdatis, Juan Monaco, and Sergiy Stakhovsky all lost for me.  However, because Baghdatis and Stakhovsky were both up a set to love I traded out for a profit on those matches and still managed to have a pretty good day.  I also traded out early on the other matches as well, but based on that I had 4 winning trades and only 1 loss on Stakhovsky.  Picks will follow shortly.

Live Blog - Thurs 8/25

So my first pick went South after the first set.  After winning the first set, Baghdatis lost in 3 to Isner.  I'm not surprised by this at all.  After looking at the stats for the first set, I backed out of my position in Baghdatis, which was nicely profitable.  I hope any readers of mine chose to do the same thing.  Always remember that some profit or some loss is better than a total loss.  Hopefully my other picks are outright winners though.

Tennis Thursday Picks!

Today's picks are as follows.
Winston-Salem
Favorites
Stakhovsky @ 1.68 Benneteau

Dogs
Haase @ 2.28 v Dolgopolov
Baghdatis @ 3.5 v Isner
Monaco @ 4.9 v Roddick

New Haven
Wozniacki @ 1.3 v McHale

Keep an eye on all these matches and trade out when you see fit.  I'm going to watch the stats on these, especially on Baghdatis because he usually plays high risk tennis.  I'm hopeful to see if today is a good day.

7 straight days of winnings! +30.25% and 4/4 Wednesday!

Today I went 4/4 on these picks.  I'm pretty happy with my results leading up to the US Open.  I've been making good choices on the matches.  I have to make sure that I don't get too over confident and hold onto bad trading positions for too long.  I've been really pleased with my picking of underdogs.  I'll be sure to have some picks up tomorrow before they start.  I'll try to do them a bit earlier than I did today.

Winston-Salem (Wed)

Today, I'm picking Robin Haase, Andy Roddick, John Isner, and Marcos Baghdatis. No dogs today, sorry for the short post but I had to do it from my mobile.

Winston-Salem Open Tuesday Final Tally +77.5% and 4/4 for the day

Yesterday was a really good day.  All of my picks came through for me, even Jarkko Nieminen who was down a set to Denis Istomin.  He was playing decently, so I held on in this one.  I've looked at the matches today, and I haven't made any picks as of yet.  I will try and post something before they start.

Winston-Salem Open (tues)

I didn't have any picks on Monday.  I didn't see anything that looked really great.  However, I have some ideas for Tuesday.

Favorites
John Isner @ 1.22 v Sela
Nieminen @ 1.82 v Istomin
Roddick @ 1.14 v Vasselin

Dogs
Robin Haase @ 2.92 v Blake

Best of luck!  Today should be a good day.

Final Tally! +57.5% and 2/2 for the day

Both my picks came in for me today.  I thought the Murray match would got to 3 sets, but it was still very close.  I'm not sure if I'm going to make a prediction for tomorrow.  So if I don't post anything I will either be staying out of this one and focusing on the other tournaments going on or I will be just watching to see how each of them plays.

Cincy Masters - Saturday

Men's Tournament
Favorites
Andy Murray @ 1.95 v Mardy Fish -- The way that Fish has been playing and the way that Murray has been playing should sway me to choose Fish, however, I think that Murray will put together a tough performance today and take this match.  Although I would watch to see how each is playing, serving, etc and make moves accordingly.  This should be a tight matchup, which are the best matches to trade.

Djokovic @ 1.2 v Berdych -- This could be another close one, but I'll watch closely from the start.

Final Tally! +18.75% and 3/4 for the day

I was correct on all the matches today except for the Federer/Berdych match.  I knew that I shouldn't have chosen Federer, not because I didn't think he'd win, but because the price for him to win was wrong.  It should have been higher for me to take it.  Either way I'm up on the day.......  I'm quite glad about that.

I'll think on tomorrow's picks and I'll let you know before they start.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Fri)

Murray v Simon
Murray went up an early break on Simon, but was immediately broken again.  Now he is up a break again.
Murray ended up winning this match so it turned out well.

Fish v Nadal
As predicted Fish took down Nadal for the first time in straight sets.  He played excellent tennis and Nadal struggled.

Federer v Berdych
From the beginning I backed Fed, however, after watching his play and watching him get down an early break I got out of that position and switched to Berdych.  I sold out of this position after Berdych won the first set.

Djokovic v Monfils
I meant to write this in my initial post, but I figured this would be a bit closer than last weeks 62 62 blowout.  I guess anybody can say that, but it's true.

Djokovic went down a break in the first set.  Shortly after this I sold out and backed Monfils.  Even though I figured that Novak would come back in the second I felt as though Monfils would take the first set and the market was pricing it as if it was a given that Novak would break back on Monfils.  Even in the 1st set market Novak was still favored 7 games in.  Which was ridiculous considering the way that Monfils was playing and the fact that he was up a break.

At the beginning of the second set I backed Novak at the start and backed him again after he got an early break.  He was broken back and I cursed myself for hanging on to this position.  He had some difficult service games, but finally came out on top.  I sold my position after Novak broke Monfils in the third set.  Monfils looked tired at the beginning of the third set, but got is energy back.  Things could get interesting if he could get a chance against Novaks serve.

Cincy Masters - Friday

Tomorrow or Today, depending on where you're at there is only one Men's single match.  Fish v Nadal.

Men's Tournament
Favorites

Murray @ 1.2 v Simon - I had a tough time with this one, because Simon is a great tennis player and has played great during this tournament, while Murray has struggled.  However, I feel Murray will find a way to make it to the semis after a first round loss in Montreal.  It could be close so get out while you can.

Federer @ 1.27 v Berdych

Djokovic @ 1.09 v Monfils

Dogs
Fish @ 2.46 v Nadal -- Fish has been playing great all year, and really great since Wimbledon.  He keeps looking better and better and I think this is a great time for him to take out a top 4 guy.

Women's Tournament

I still don't have anything on the women's front.  If I see something in before tomorrow's matches start, I'll definitely update.

Final Tally on the Day! +38% and 8 of 9 matches called correctly

So, today was the 4th day in a row that I made money in the markets, and the 4th day in a row anyone would have made money had they followed my picks.  I'm pretty full of myself at the moment, but I hope that I can continue to deliver quality results.

I will try to put the picks up for tomorrow before I go to sleep tonight, but we shall see.  I'm waiting for BetFair to open the markets on them.

As of right now I'm thinking Fish, Federer, Djokovic, and undecided on Murray/Simon.  Before I make these final I want to see how the market perceives them.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Thurs)

Nadal v Verdasco
Rafa went down an early break to Verdasco.  I've seen Rafa do this several times, but he usually bounces back so I took the opportunity to double down.

Nadal immediately broke back in a game in which Verdasco, had three double faults.  I'm back in the money with this position.

Shockingly Nadal double faulted on triple break point to put him back a break down.  My position is back out of the money.

Nadal is looking shaky and I'm considering back Verdasco, but I want to see a few more games.  Verdasco is falling apart as he was just broken back.... Not so much on Rafa's brilliance but on his own misgivings.

Verdasco had 2 break points on Rafa's next serve, but lost 4 straight points to lose the game.  At this point I backed Rafa, because players often fall apart after losing chances like that.  However, he held so I took a small loss.



Murray v Bogomolov
Murray took Bogo's first and second service game off him, so this is looking like a good position to be in.

When Murray was up a break in the second set I sold out at 1.03.  Perfect time to do so, as he later got broke.  He went on to win, but I already had my profits.


Nicolas Almagro v Tomas Berdych
I moved out of this position after Berdych broke Almagro early in the first set for a sizable loss.  Berdych looked to be playing well and that makes him dangerous.

Mardy Fish v Richard Gasquet
The Fish Gasquet match was pretty tight, but Fish took the first set.  I sold out after the first set.

Gilles Simon v David Ferrer
So far this match is on serve at 4-3 Simon.  It will be tight and I think if Simon gets up a break I will sell out quickly.

Ferrer just double faulted to lose the first set.  I'm going to sell out here for a nice gain.

Novak Djokovic v Radek Stepanek
I backed Novak to win the first set @ 1.11, then used the original bet, plus the winnings to bet on Novak  in the second set.  He won both 6-3, 6-3 so it turned out great.

Tally for the day!

So far today, if you had backed each of my picks and held you'd have a gain of 30.66% of the total amount.  Not a bad day again so far.  Luckily Simon pulled it out in the 3rd set.

I didn't do that, because I am a trader.  However, I have similar results.  I am up 31.78% on the day.

We still have a few matches to go!

Cincy Masters - Day 4

My picks for today are as follows.

Men's Tournament

Favorites -- in order of play

11AM EST/4PM GMT

Rafael Nadal @ 1.16 v Fernando Verdasco

Andy Murray @ 1.27 v Alex Bogomolov -- On this one I'd watch how Murray is playing.  His play in North America has been terrible this year, and he only beat Nalbandian in the first round because Nalbandian was playing even worse than Murray.  I think he'll bounce back in this one, but you never know what could happen so watch for Murray's level or errors and serve percentage.

Mardy Fish @ 1.49 v Richard Gasquet -- I normally would like to take Gasquet on this one because I think it's a really favorable price, but Fish has been on a tear lately I and I don't want to go against that.

Novak Djokovic @1.07 v Radek Stepanek -- I'm going to bet Novak in each successive set.  The first set is going off at 1.11, so I would recommend that, however, if Stepanek takes a set of Novak I'm going to bet bigger on the second and third sets, unless something looks terribly wrong.

Roger Federer @ 1.13 v James Blake -- While Blake is playing well and everyone seems to think that Federer is on the decline, he played beautifully versus del Potro and he's looking hungry leading up to the US Open.  Roger also usually plays really great in the lead-up tourneys to majors.  If Roger wins the first set, I will move out of this position and use the winnings to put on the second set line.

Gael Monfils @ 1.85 v Philip Kohlschreiber -- Last night this was going off at 1.98.  I got in then.  This was one of those situations where I felt like the line was too good to be true.  Therefore I will be sure to move out of this position if it looks like Monfils is struggling.  Sometimes the French fall out of leadup tourneys early (ahem, Tsonga in Cincy and Eastbourne this year).

Dogs

Nicolas Almagro @ 2.6 v Tomas Berdych

Gilles Simon @ 2.42 v David Ferrer

Again, watch the way these guys play and take wins and losses when we feel the need to.

Nothing on the women's front.  I can't bring myself to watch women's tennis with the same intensity as men's tennis, so my ability to make picks on it is tough.  Plus women's tennis is incredibly unpredictable. I'll try to live blog during matches.

Cincy Masters - Day 3 Partial Results

So far all my matches have held up except for Tsonga.  The Serena Williams match was a loss, but since it was a walkover all bets are off.

However, since Tsonga lost and Serena didn't play the total gain for the day is only a couple percent.  Since this is the case, I'm going to add a few more plays to my bets for today.

I'm going to back Djokovic in both the first set and the second set for as well as the whole match.

I'll be back tomorrow to make picks.

Update

Novak won in straight sets so I ended the day up around 4%.  Not a great day, but remember any gain is better than a day of losses.  Today was a relatively low risk low reward day.  Since I couldn't actually trade on the matches as I was on a flight I didn't want to outright back any underdogs.

Cincy Masters - Day 3

Men's Tournament
Favorites


Andy Murray @ 1.32 v David Nalbandian
Novak Djokovic @ 1.05 v Ryan Harrison
Rafael Nadal @ 1.09 v Julien Benneteau
Mardy Fish @ 1.46 v Nikolay Davydenko
Radek Stepanek @ 1.36 v Andrey Golubev
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.17 v Alex Bogomolov Jr

Dogs


I don't see any in the cards today.  There will likely be one, but I can't choose one today.  I've got a 2:30 flight back to the States today, so I'm going to back these and see what happens.  So today I'm essentially betting instead of trading.  But I'm still confident.

Women's Tournament
Favorites

Serena Williams @ 1.58 v Samantha Stosur

Good luck!!

Tuesday's results -- Good results

Yesterday I went 5 - 0.  If you'd put the same amount on each event, for instance £10, you'd be up £30.5.  A 61.5% increase on the overall investment.  Pretty good days work.  However, I didn't hold on through the entire match, because I like to take winnings when I can.  I ended the day up 24% on my total bankroll.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Tues)

Tipsarevic donuted Roger-Vasselin in the first set.  So I sold out of that position at 1.05, for a nice gain.  As soon as I see an opportunity that I haven't written about already I will take it and update this post.

Tsonga got up a set so I moved out of that position after that.

Dodig broke Gulbis in the 4 game of the first set, so I sold out for a 60% gain.

On another note, Janko got pushed to a third set and a tiebreaker, this is where I'm glad I sold off in the first set, otherwise I'd be biting my nails about now.

Cincy Masters - Day 2

Today's tournament matches!  I have a few less picks today.  However, I want to stress that you should take these picks and use them as a guide to matches you should either bet on or trade on.  Either way I hope you make money!


Men's Tournament
Favorites
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.65 v Marin Cilic
Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.24 v Edourdo Roger-Vasselin

Dogs
Ivan Dodig @ 2.74 v Ernests Gulbis

Women's Tournament
Favorites
Serena Williams @ 1.07 v Lucie Hradecka
Shuai Peng @ 1.35 v Gisela Dulko

Good luck today.  I will try to live blog with opportunities I see.

Day 1 Back - Results

So yesterday was good on the men's front and terrible on the women's.  All my men's picks won and my women's picks lost.  If anyone had bet £10 on all the picks and waiting until the end you'd be up £49.10.

I however didn't do that as I traded out of several of the positions early, so I ended up 22% on my bankroll and I'm up to £152.10.  I will start posting actual trades in the future.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters

Lisicki went down an early break so I doubled down on her at 1.53.  She broke back the very next game so it turned out well.

I also moved out of my Fabio Fognini position after he got up 30 love on Troicki's serve in the 4th game for an 19% profit.  I bought back into Fognini after Troicki almost broke him, I find that players who almost break, but end up having rough games the next game.  Sure enough Fognini broke and won the set, plus he routed Troicki in the 2nd set.  Still shocked that I got 6.2 on Fognini at the start of this match.

I'm back -- Cincy Masters

It's been awhile since I've made any posts.  I've taken a big break in trading.  But I'm back and ready to start blogging about it again.  I've started trading again last week with the beginning of the Rogers Cup.  This week is the Cincy Masters.  I'll post a few picks everyday in terms of pre-match position.  I don't plan to do much in-match trading except exiting positions as it's too difficult with the time change and non-live feeds.

Today August 15, 2011

Women's Tournament -- 1st Round
Favorites
Sabine Lisicki @ 1.27 v Shahar Peer --  I would hold this until the first set is over, if Lisicki wins I'd exit the position and if Shahar wins I'd either double down on Lisicki or sell out depending on the stats.

Julia Georges @ 1.83 v Jie Zheng

Dogs (No looks wise in this case, as Pironkova is a classic beauty)
Tsvetana Pironkova @ 2.42 v Christina McHale

Men's Tournament 1st round
Favorites
Alex Bogomolov Jr @ 1.44 v Robby Ginepri
Richard Gasquet @ 1.53 v Alexandr Dolgopolov
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.74 v Juan Carlos Ferrero

Dogs
David Nalbandian @ 2.2 v Kei Nishikori
Fabio Fognini @ 6 v Viktor Troicki

These are the current prices on these.  They are likely to move different directions before the match starts so wait for the best price before the match.

When trading it is key for each of you to learn when to trade out.  For me I like to use the strategy above, but I have to get a feel for how each player is playing.  On any given day any player can beat another because sometimes everything goes right for one player and everything goes wrong for another.  Just look at Rafael Nadal's loss last week at the hands of Ivan Dodig.  Anything is possible, so trade out when you are comfortable.  If you feel the match is going the way you predicted hold with it, but get out when you have a handsome profit.  I've learned the hard way, when I could have traded out of a position as a player was serving for the win match and ended up losing.

Wimbledon Men's Semis - Results/Women's Final

My apologies for not updating the blog before the start of the Murray/Nadal match.  No viable excuse.

I ended up backing Nadal from the start.  This didn't go well as Murray took the first set in a late break of serve.  Instead of laying for a loss I backed Nadal further.  I did this because he wasn't playing all that well and Murray was playing really exceptionally.  I knew the tide for both of them would have to change and sure enough it did.  Nadal started playing better and Murray started playing much worse.

Tomorrow I'm going to back Maria Sharapova from the beginning of the match and lay when I have a 15% profit.

Wimbledon Men's Semis

So Maria came through for me even after a tough start.  I was tempted to sell off when she went down 3 games to love, but I held on.  A valuable lesson is that there are always large swings in the tennis markets.  That is why they can be so profitable.

Today is the men's semifinals.  First match is Djokovic v Tsonga.  I plan to back Djokovic from the beginning and then trade for profit and then make some other trades based on the opportunities I see.

I'll have another post before the Murray/Nadal match before it starts.

Wimbledon Quarterfinals - results

It was a crazy day at Wimbledon with Jo-Wilfred Tsonga upsetting Roger Federer.  Since I backed Fed, it was still okay since I got out after he was a set up.

Rafa, Novak, and Andy all won today, making all my trades profitable.

I haven't updated my bankroll in awhile.  My new total is £161.50 and I'm up 61.5% since I started this blog.  I'm pretty happy with the results so far, but I'm always looking to improve.

Tomorrow I'm going to back Maria Sharapova v Sabine Lisicki.  I'll trade out of this position as soon as I get a 15-20% profit from my stake.

Men's Quarterfinals - Wimbledon

Today is the Men's quarterfinals action of Wimbledon.  Since there were no men's matches on yesterday I didn't back anyone.

Today, I'm going to back all of the favorites except for Nadal because he could have to retire after his foot injury during his match against del Potro.

So I'll back Djokovic, Federer, and Murray today.

Wimbledon Day 7 - Round of 16!

Today marks the start of the round of 16 matches.

This is where the matches should get a lot tighter for the favorites.

I'm going to start the day by backing,

Juan Martin del Potro v Rafael Nadal

Mardy Fish v Tomas Berdych

David Ferrer v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga

Bernard Tomic v Xavier Malisse

I'll sell out of these positions as soon as there is a decent profit margin.

Tomic/Malisse was up first....

I made a nice profit after Tomic put Malisse down a break on his first service game.

Gasquet pushed Murray to a break point on his first service game.  The line moved from 4.3 (where I backed Gasquet) to 3.0 when Gasquet had the break opportunity.  I sold off for a healthy profit.

Mardy Fish won the first set in his match up with Berdych.  I would've pulled out right at the beginning of the tiebreaker, but Berdych's 1st serve percentage was horrible so I held on until after he won for a bigger profit.

Currently del Potro and Nadal are still on serve, I'm debated whether to sell off or not, but we'll see.

Also, in a rare move to trade on Women's tennis I backed Pironkova v V. Williams.  This turned out well and I sold off after Pironkova's first break on Venus.

Wimbledon Day 6

I didn't do a ton of trading on Saturday for day 6 of Wimbledon.

However, I did back Novak Djokovic after he dropped a set.  I also backed Roger Federer from the beginning of his match.  Overall it was a pretty light day of trading.

Wimbledon Day 5

As suspected David Ferrer played well and finished off Ryan Harrison in 5 sets.

However, as I type Roddick is down 2 sets to love against Feliciano Lopez.  I think he's got a good chance to come back and win this match or even take the next set.  But we will see.  He lost two sets in the tiebreaker which is tough.  Hopefully he makes a comeback.

I lost my stake on Roddick.  It was a tough blow, but I made the mistake of betting on him when I hadn't seen how the play was going.  If I had I would have seen that he was not playing well and Feliciano was playing out of his mind.  I didn't lose much as I didn't place a huge amount on this match.

Otherwise things for today were good.  Gilles Simon took the first set with Del Potro into a tiebreaker, which is where I sold off for a good profit.  I then backed Simon after he lost the first set, and again sold out after he got a break.

Monfils lost the first set which is when I further backed him, as I was watching this match and he came back to win the second to which I made a profit.

I'll update my P/L in the morning and make suggestions for what I did during the Murray match and my picks for tomorrow.

Wimbledon Day 5

I'm in school all afternoon so I can't do very much live trading.

I'd back David Ferrer at 1.35 as I think he'll for sure take the 4th set and then take the fifth as well.

I plan to back some underdogs today.

I'm going to lay Del Potro v Gilles Simon today.  Simon has the ability to play really well and Del Potro hasn't been overly consistent lately.  I will take a profit early if Simon gets up a break or pushes the first set to a tiebreaker or even gets an early break point opportunity depending on the movement of the line.  I'll bail out if he is broken early.

Lastly I plan to back Roddick and Monfils today.

Happy trading!

Wimbledon day 4 - results

Up 11% New Bankroll 129.22

So day four at Wimbledon was awesome.  Having great center court seats was really great.  If you ever get the chance it is an amazing event and I would highly recommend it especially if you enjoy tennis.

My picks for yesterday didn't go exactly as planned, but what in life ever does.  So let's go over what I did wrong.  First, I suspected that Hewitt would be a pushover for Soderling.  After Sodering dropped the first set I backed him further, and then after he dropped the second set I backed him again.  I was a bit uncomfortable going so deep on this, but I knew that Soderling wasn't playing badly and that it was a very tight match.  I thought that he had a very good chance to come back and win in 5 sets.  Thankfully for me I was right.  He won the next three sets and took the match.  I sold off with a modest profit in the 4th set, so I could guarantee profit.  I wished I had held on because I had a solid feeling about Soderling.  Tennis is such a swing sport it's tough to make yourself do things like that though.

2nd I was also wrong about Tomic.  I thought that would be an easy match for him and he dropped the first two sets.  I sold my position after the first set for a small loss because I hadn't seen how Tomic was playing and I didn't want to make a judgement call on just the score alone.  The scoreboard in tennis rarely says what is actually going on.

As I recommended Del Potro came back and won three easy straight sets.

Also Melzer took the first and third sets in his match.  I backed him from the beginning and then sold off after he took the first set.

It was a great day, although I wouldn't recommend live trading from the event unless you have the proper equipment.  I was forced to use the BetFair app for iPhone which was less than desirable for use.

Wimbledon Day 4 - Trading suggestions for the day

My trading suggestions for the day:

Last night Juan Martin Del Potro went down one set to Oliver Rochus.  I'd back him before the start of the match today and sell off whenever you get comfortable.  After an early break or even a break opportunity will create a decent profit.

I'd back Tomic v Andreev and sell off after the first set.

I'd back Jurgen Melzer v Denis Tursonov and sell off if he get's an early break or an early break opportunity.

Lastly, I'd back Soderling v Hewitt.  I think that this won't be much of a match, but you still get decent odds.

One thing to remember when making assumptions before a match is that you should watch the match and try to get a feel for the way it is going.  There are times that you can tell that it's not a certain players day.  For instance, yesterday I wanted to bank Fernando Verdasco but after watching the first few games it was obvious that he was going to struggle with the match.

Happy Trading!

Day 3 Final Results

Up 10.8% New Bankroll £116.37.

These are the finals for today.  There are no other matches that I want to make trades on today.  So that'll be all.

I enjoyed blogging as I traded today.  I may continue to do so, except I'll keep it shorter and more in realtime.

Tomorrow I'm attending Wimbledon.  I will probably do some light trading while watching matches, but we will have to see. Tomorrow a live update won't be possible.

Wimbledon Day 3 in trading

Earlier in the day I made a trade from my mobile, I was in class so I couldn't use my computer or post the idea.  When I saw that Venus Williams went down a set to Date-Krumm, I back Venus knowing that she would pull through at least to push it to 3 sets.  I sold out after she won set 2.

Currently watching Mardy Fish v Denis Istomin.  I believe this will be a 3 set win for Fish, but Istomin is a heavy hitter.  Istomin just battled out of being down 40-15 in his opening game.

Fish was broken after his almost break on Istomin.  I took Fish at 1.6 after he was broken.  We'll see how it moves as the match progresses.

As predicted in my earlier post Wawrinka went down on his opening game against Bolelli.  I backed Wawrinka at 1.40.  So we'll also see how that plays out.  Wawrinka broke back during game 4 and I laid out at 1.2 for a nice 11.6% profit on that trade.  Beautiful!

Fish breaks back on Istomins serve on game 8.  I was able to lay at 1.25 for a nice profit.  So far so good today.

Often times this strategy can backfire, especially in 3 set tournaments that don't matter as much.  But as I stated before 5 set matches and Grand Slams are different.  Good players dig deeper and weaker players crumble under pressure more often.  You have to know the players you're dealing with this strategy will not work in every situation.

My next move was to back Fish at the beginning of the tie-breaker at 1.36.  Once he went up 6-3, I sold off at 1.2 for another nice profit.  Even though I could've waiting for him to win for a higher profit, why not take the good profit when you can.  Although he ended up winning the tie-breaker it went to 6-6 before he finally won it.

I'm done trading the Fish match and am now focused on Wawrinka/Bolelli.  Wawrinka ended up dropping the first set in the tie-breaker, so I've backed Wawrinka at 1.72 and will exit this position as soon as I see a good opening.  Unfortunately for me Wawrinka dropped his first service game in the second set and has gone up 2.6+.  I still believe that the tide will turn for Wawrinka, but we'll see what happens.  I'm holding my position on this match for the time being.  I decided to further back Wawrinka, at 2.54.  If he is able to break back I'll be able to sell out for a nice profit.  In game 7 Wawrinka pushed Bolelli to 3 break points.  I sold out at 40-15 Wawrinka at 1.80.  Although I lost on the first trade I made a nice profit on the other to make an overall profit.

Another good lesson.  When backing something, and things get worse.  If you are still confident that the player will make a comeback it's a good idea to back him more at a better price.  This will cost average you out so that when you sell out you make an even better profit.  To do this though you should make sure that you are not going in really deep into your roll on your bets.

Next up.....

Verdasco went down an early break.  I backed Verdasco at 2.12 immediately following the break and when he went up 15 - love the next game I cleared the trade at 1.98 for a 7% profit on that stake.  I was happy with this move and I've found that when a favorite gets broken early if you back them you'll find a profitable exit shortly after.

A huge mistake I made when watching this match was that I should've backed Haase after the first couple of games.  He was playing superbly and Verdasco was not playing that well.  If I had backed him at 2.5 and then sold at 2.1 when he had his first break point against Verdasco I would have benefited handsomely.

After Gael Monfils lost his first set to Grega Lemlja I backed him.  As soon as he went up an early break I decided to close the trade for a profit.

Wimbledon Day 3 - Pretrading

Today I decided that I would post my strategy for the day before I actually start trading.  That way I have some accountability to my plan and my readers.  A well as giving any of my readers my thoughts for their own use.

So, today I plan to back Gilles Simon @ 1.64 against Dudi Sela.  Simon is an excellent player and he should take this in 3 or 4 sets.  I will trade out of this position if he gets up one set.  I will also back him further if he gets down one set and then move out of the position after set 2.

After Verdasco's long 5 set match yesterday v Stepanek, I will watch for an opportunity in his match today.

I will keep an eye on Wawrinka and other heavy favorites to see if they get down an early break or early set and back them until they're profitable.

I will update after trading about what moves I made and which direction I will try and go tomorrow.

Wimbledon Day 2 - Back in the Black

Up 12% New Bankroll 105.03

On Day 1 of Wimbledon I didn't do any trading.  I had a rough morning with school and work, and I wasn't feeling in the right mindset so I didn't feel that I would trade very well.  Being mentally fit is as important in trading as it is in tennis.

However, day 2 of trading went really well.  I started by backing Serena William at 1 set all and holding on until I had a 20% gain on my bet.

My next move was to back Fernando Verdasco when he was down 1 set to love against Radek Stepanek.  When he went down 2 sets to love I backed him further, hoping for a comeback.  I was able to get it at 7 at this point.  When he won the third set I was able to trade for a nice profit.

Then I was to back John Isner v Nicolas Mahut.  I knew that this was a high profile match because of the records they set last year.  However, I felt that the line was skewed in Mahut's favor.  I felt that last year was a fluke and the Isner is a better player proven by his results.  I was able to back Isner at 1.54 and I sold out for a profit after he took the first set.

Wimbledon Starts Tomorrow

I haven't updated in a couple of days as I haven't been doing any trading on the Final matches of the Unicef Open or The Aegon International.  I have been preparing for the coming fortnight of The Championships, Wimbledon.

I will be trading several matches tomorrow and I will post my plans in the morning.

Some things to keep in mind about trading matches during Wimbledon.  Things change at Grand Slams.  To most players this is the most important tournament of the year or at the very least 1 of 4 of the most important tournaments of the year.  It is also a 5 set tournament as opposed to all other tournaments that are now 3 sets.  Also to keep in mind is that players have a day of rest between each match unless one of their matches is delayed.  As Roger Federer has been quoted saying, a regular tournament is like a sprint, a grand slam is a marathon.  You have to keep things like this in mind when you are trading because the dynamics totally change.  Two weeks ago at the Aegon Championships, Nadal lost a 3 set match to Tsonga.  This is much more unlikely to happen at Wimbledon because of all of the above reasons.  Since the matches are 5 sets, you have to keep in mind that the swings can be much more violent.  Players can come back from 2 sets down, players can get injured, etc.

It's going to be an interesting 2 weeks and I should have an update daily, except for Sunday when their aren't any matches.

Xavier my savior today - UNICEF Open

Up 6% New Bankroll 93.78.

Today I started the day trading on a match betwee Xavier Malisse and Alex Bogomolov at the UNICEF Open in The Netherlands.  I only made one trade on the match, I initially backed Malisse to win and as soon as he broke in the first set I traded out for profit.

I planned on trading the later matches at the Aegon International, but bad weather here in the UK prevented the matches from playing.  So I although I felt as though I would like to continue trading today, there weren't any other matches that I felt confident in trading.  It is hard to stay disciplined to know when to quit, but today I feel as though I definitely made the right decision.

I'll try to spend the rest of the day analyzing the Wimbledon draw so that I can decide which matches I want to trade on Monday.  As there are so many matches on Monday it will be impertinent that I make smart selections.

Be back tomorrow.

Better day at Aegon International

Up 11% New Bankroll 88.47.


Today I started out trading the Venus Williams v Daniela Hantuchova match.  I watched the match from the beginning and I saw that although Venus lost the first set she was playing really well.  So I backed her as soon as the first set was over.  She continued to play well in the second set and won 5-7.  The odds moved severely back in my favor and I sold out for a nice profit.

I then traded Stosur v. Zvonareva match.  At the beginning of the match I backed the serving receiving back and forth until the first break.  This strategy didn't work that well, but I still ended up with a profit.  After the first break I wasn't feeling very good about the match and my confidence trading the match so I quit.

One of the lessons I've learned from this and past experiences is that you shouldn't trade when you're not confident or when you're not focused.  Like the players on the court you have to be fit to trade.  Like the players you can't trade profitably if you're not mentally fit.  I'll trade more tomorrow on the Aegon International.

Aegon International - Eastbourne. Not a good start

Down 20.3%.  Bankroll 79.70.


I started the day looking at matches that I felt comfortable with and matches that were going to be televised.  While I think it's possible to successfully trade matches that aren't on TV, I do think that it's more risky.  After looking at the matches I didn't see anything that I wanted to trade at the UNICEF Open so I decided to wait until the afternoon Men's matches at the Aegon International.

While waiting for the Tsonga v Stepanek I decided to start trading the S. Williams v Zvonareva.  After a set and a half and even though Williams was up a set and a break I decided that backing Zvonareva at 8.10 was a good idea.  Williams had played a long match yesterday and this was turning out to be another long one.  Considering Serena hadn't played a match in several months and the fact that she was having to take breathers after long points I figured she would start to breakdown a bit.  My intuition was correct as Zvonareva forced her to a tiebreaker and eventually a 3rd set.  With an early break in the first set Zvonareva was going off at 1.31.  A huge difference.  I wish I had held out that long, but I took profits much earlier.  Nonetheless I was happy with my profits on this match.  Zvonareva ended up winning the match in the third set.

Finallly the Tsonga/Stepanek match started.  I backed Tsonga from the beginning and to my dismay he was immediately broken in the opening game.  I 'greened' up on this trade or 'redded' after he lost the first set for a major loss.  Luckily I had made a decent gain on Zvonareva earlier or it would've been worse.

One lesson from today.  At lesser tournaments such as the Aegon International or even Queen's top players don't always play their best.  For instance it would be much more surprising to see Tsonga top Nadal at a grandslam or even a master's series event, but he did so at Queens.  Same goes for Stepanek v Tsonga.  Tsonga was down a break and laughing at the Aegon International because it's not that big of a deal.  As I write this he is down a set and a break, but I still have confidence that he could come back.  I have to go for a school function.  Will be back tomorrow!

£10,000 Challenge!

I'm an American student currently living in London.  Since I arrived a few months ago I've been fascinated by how easy it is to gamble in the UK, especially on sports.  It's incredibly simple to open an online account at any number of sportsbooks or walk down to Ladbrokes or WillHill to place a wager.  In the US the government has cracked down on it so hard that opening a betting account and funding it is incredibly difficult as many sites won't serve US customers, US banks won't allow transactions, etc and Sportsbooks are few are far between.

I started making a few small bets here and there when I felt like I had spotted an opportunity.  When betting against Murray v Troicki at the French Open I wished I could have closed out the bet when Troicki was up 2 sets to love.  However, I couldn't as I had made the bet at an online sportsbook.  After this I decided that I wanted to find a sports exchange like one I had used several years earlier called tradesports.  This exchange has currently closed and I found that BetFair and Betdaq had filled the space.

I immediately opened up an account and started trading on tennis.  I found tennis to be an excellent sport to trade on because their are swings, lots of matches throughout the year, and enough liquidity in the market.  After trading for a couple of weeks, I decided to give myself a challenge and blog about it because I feel as though I will perform better under the pressure.  So I've decided that I am going to attempt to make £10,000 with an initial bank of £100.  I have a few strategies that I've tried in the past couple of weeks that I will be implementing and detailing in future posts when I have more data.  I will try to post on trading days and will keep a running tally of all my profits and losses starting with trading at the UNICEF Open and Aegon International.  I plan to focus on Men's tennis to begin with, but I have some ideas about women's tennis as well.  They are fundamentally different in the way the play and the the way the odds move.  More on that later.

Depending on how long this takes I will also occasionally trade on other sports when I feel as though I've spotted a good trade.