US Open Day 3 picks

Trade out early and often if you have the opportunity for profit..

Dogs

Marcos Bahdatis @ 3.5 v John Isner

Ryan Sweeting at 2.46 v Denis Istomin

Lukas Rosol @ 2.42 v Vasek Pospisil

Favs

Robin Soderling @ 1.08 v Louk Sorenson

Nicolas Almagro @ 1.48 v Julien Benneteau

Feliciano Lopez @ 1.1 v Tatsuma Ito

Alex Bogomolov @ 1.11 v Steve Johnson

Robin Haase @ 1.11 v Rui Machado

Marc Gicquel @ 1.43 v Jack Sock

Day 1 results 8/9 +13.1%, Day 2 results 4/7 and -19.8%

So, Monday went okay, the only thing I was wrong about was Troicki who lost in a 5 setter to Alejandro Falla.  Because I choose all favs on Monday it was a good day, but not a huge increase in terms of amount wagered.

Tuesday was a bust, I only picked 4 of 7 correctly and all my dogs lost.  For me it was good because all my dogs had close and tough matches so there was a good opportunity for me to get out of these positions profitably.

US Open Day 2

Below are my picks.  Sorry for the late post.  I'll reflect on yesterday and today in the same post later.

Favs

James Blake @ 1.16 v Jesse Huta Galung

David Nalbandian @ 1.2 v Bobby Reynolds

Nicolas Mahut @ 1.59 v Robert Farah

Gilles Muller @ 1.66 v Edouard Roger Vasselin 2.46

Dmitry Tursunov @ 1.61 v Steve Darcis

Dogs

Ivan Dodig 2.24 v Davydenko

Blaz Kavcic @ 2.92 v Ivan Ljubicic

US Open Day 1

Here are all my picks for today.  I don't have any underdogs in this batch.  Possibly tomorrow.

Men's Tournament

Richard Gasquet  @ 1.24 v Sergiy Stakhovsky

Fabio Fognini @ 1.39 v Horacio Zeballos

Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.14 v Frederico Gil

Mardy Fish 1.06 v Tobias Kamke

Viktor Troicki @ 1.13 v Alejandro Falla

Bernard Tomic @ 1.32 v Michael Yani

Radek Stepanek @ 1.55 v Philipp Kohlschreiber

Kevin Anderson @ 1.18 v Go Soeda

Women's Tournament

Julia Goerges @ 1.3 v Kristina Barrois

Saturday Results +26% 1/1

So, John Isner won in 3 sets today after dropping the first set.  After the first set I doubled down on John Isner and sold off my position after he won the second set.  Even though he wasn't playing great I didn't feel as though he would lose in straights v Benneteau.  I didn't do anything on the Sabine Lisicki match and I only posted it because there were no other men's matches.  I saw it was a blowout.  I'm thinking that I'm only going to make calls on Women's Tennis when I'm really confident of what I am picking.  Women's Tennis is much more unpredictable to me.  US Open day 1 picks soon!

Saturday Picks and Trading Moves

The only pick I'm taking today is John Isner @ 1.26 v Julien Benneteau.

If you want something else to work with today, I'd also trade on the Aravane Rezai @ 6.2 v Sabine Lisicki.  6.2 is far too high for Rezai v Liscki, they've split their last two matches and both went to 3 sets.  This could be a blowout, but it could also be very close.  I'd back Rezai from the start and trade out early.

Friday Results, regular picks down -5.3% or 1/3 trading up

Yesterday I only picked one correctly and that was John Isner beating Andy Roddick.  It was a tight match, which I figured it would be and since the odds didn't reflect how close it would be I chose Isner.  I actually traded out of this position when the 1 set went to a tiebreaker.  It was a good time to take a nice profit, and cut out the risk of Isner losing the set, and giving my position a bad loss

Robin Haase won the first set and I sold out when that happened.  I didn't want to take any chances and I was right to do so.

I sold off on Na Li after her first set loss for a loss on that position.  The market seemed to think she would come back because the price wasn't too bad.

Overall I was up on the day so even though if I bet on each of these I'd be down a bit, I ended up with a good position.

Friday 8/26 Tennis Picks!

Men's Matches
John Isner @ 2.84 v Andy Roddick -- I'm taking this one because I feel that the odds are wrong.  Isner is an up and coming and Roddick is a has been.  I think that Roddick still has a good chance to win this, but it'll be close and there will be a great time to trade out for a nice profit.  Watch ini the early games to see who is serving well.  That is going to be the key in this one.


Robin Haase @ 1.58 v Julien Benneteau


Women's Matches
Na Li @ 1.48 v Petra Cetkovska


Maybe I'll post more in later matches.......

Thursday results -28.4% and 2/5, yet still a winning day for me

From a straight picks standpoint, yesterday wasn't the best.  Robin Haase and Caroline Wozniacki were my only winners.  Marcos Baghdatis, Juan Monaco, and Sergiy Stakhovsky all lost for me.  However, because Baghdatis and Stakhovsky were both up a set to love I traded out for a profit on those matches and still managed to have a pretty good day.  I also traded out early on the other matches as well, but based on that I had 4 winning trades and only 1 loss on Stakhovsky.  Picks will follow shortly.

Live Blog - Thurs 8/25

So my first pick went South after the first set.  After winning the first set, Baghdatis lost in 3 to Isner.  I'm not surprised by this at all.  After looking at the stats for the first set, I backed out of my position in Baghdatis, which was nicely profitable.  I hope any readers of mine chose to do the same thing.  Always remember that some profit or some loss is better than a total loss.  Hopefully my other picks are outright winners though.

Tennis Thursday Picks!

Today's picks are as follows.
Winston-Salem
Favorites
Stakhovsky @ 1.68 Benneteau

Dogs
Haase @ 2.28 v Dolgopolov
Baghdatis @ 3.5 v Isner
Monaco @ 4.9 v Roddick

New Haven
Wozniacki @ 1.3 v McHale

Keep an eye on all these matches and trade out when you see fit.  I'm going to watch the stats on these, especially on Baghdatis because he usually plays high risk tennis.  I'm hopeful to see if today is a good day.

7 straight days of winnings! +30.25% and 4/4 Wednesday!

Today I went 4/4 on these picks.  I'm pretty happy with my results leading up to the US Open.  I've been making good choices on the matches.  I have to make sure that I don't get too over confident and hold onto bad trading positions for too long.  I've been really pleased with my picking of underdogs.  I'll be sure to have some picks up tomorrow before they start.  I'll try to do them a bit earlier than I did today.

Winston-Salem (Wed)

Today, I'm picking Robin Haase, Andy Roddick, John Isner, and Marcos Baghdatis. No dogs today, sorry for the short post but I had to do it from my mobile.

Winston-Salem Open Tuesday Final Tally +77.5% and 4/4 for the day

Yesterday was a really good day.  All of my picks came through for me, even Jarkko Nieminen who was down a set to Denis Istomin.  He was playing decently, so I held on in this one.  I've looked at the matches today, and I haven't made any picks as of yet.  I will try and post something before they start.

Winston-Salem Open (tues)

I didn't have any picks on Monday.  I didn't see anything that looked really great.  However, I have some ideas for Tuesday.

Favorites
John Isner @ 1.22 v Sela
Nieminen @ 1.82 v Istomin
Roddick @ 1.14 v Vasselin

Dogs
Robin Haase @ 2.92 v Blake

Best of luck!  Today should be a good day.

Final Tally! +57.5% and 2/2 for the day

Both my picks came in for me today.  I thought the Murray match would got to 3 sets, but it was still very close.  I'm not sure if I'm going to make a prediction for tomorrow.  So if I don't post anything I will either be staying out of this one and focusing on the other tournaments going on or I will be just watching to see how each of them plays.

Cincy Masters - Saturday

Men's Tournament
Favorites
Andy Murray @ 1.95 v Mardy Fish -- The way that Fish has been playing and the way that Murray has been playing should sway me to choose Fish, however, I think that Murray will put together a tough performance today and take this match.  Although I would watch to see how each is playing, serving, etc and make moves accordingly.  This should be a tight matchup, which are the best matches to trade.

Djokovic @ 1.2 v Berdych -- This could be another close one, but I'll watch closely from the start.

Final Tally! +18.75% and 3/4 for the day

I was correct on all the matches today except for the Federer/Berdych match.  I knew that I shouldn't have chosen Federer, not because I didn't think he'd win, but because the price for him to win was wrong.  It should have been higher for me to take it.  Either way I'm up on the day.......  I'm quite glad about that.

I'll think on tomorrow's picks and I'll let you know before they start.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Fri)

Murray v Simon
Murray went up an early break on Simon, but was immediately broken again.  Now he is up a break again.
Murray ended up winning this match so it turned out well.

Fish v Nadal
As predicted Fish took down Nadal for the first time in straight sets.  He played excellent tennis and Nadal struggled.

Federer v Berdych
From the beginning I backed Fed, however, after watching his play and watching him get down an early break I got out of that position and switched to Berdych.  I sold out of this position after Berdych won the first set.

Djokovic v Monfils
I meant to write this in my initial post, but I figured this would be a bit closer than last weeks 62 62 blowout.  I guess anybody can say that, but it's true.

Djokovic went down a break in the first set.  Shortly after this I sold out and backed Monfils.  Even though I figured that Novak would come back in the second I felt as though Monfils would take the first set and the market was pricing it as if it was a given that Novak would break back on Monfils.  Even in the 1st set market Novak was still favored 7 games in.  Which was ridiculous considering the way that Monfils was playing and the fact that he was up a break.

At the beginning of the second set I backed Novak at the start and backed him again after he got an early break.  He was broken back and I cursed myself for hanging on to this position.  He had some difficult service games, but finally came out on top.  I sold my position after Novak broke Monfils in the third set.  Monfils looked tired at the beginning of the third set, but got is energy back.  Things could get interesting if he could get a chance against Novaks serve.

Cincy Masters - Friday

Tomorrow or Today, depending on where you're at there is only one Men's single match.  Fish v Nadal.

Men's Tournament
Favorites

Murray @ 1.2 v Simon - I had a tough time with this one, because Simon is a great tennis player and has played great during this tournament, while Murray has struggled.  However, I feel Murray will find a way to make it to the semis after a first round loss in Montreal.  It could be close so get out while you can.

Federer @ 1.27 v Berdych

Djokovic @ 1.09 v Monfils

Dogs
Fish @ 2.46 v Nadal -- Fish has been playing great all year, and really great since Wimbledon.  He keeps looking better and better and I think this is a great time for him to take out a top 4 guy.

Women's Tournament

I still don't have anything on the women's front.  If I see something in before tomorrow's matches start, I'll definitely update.

Final Tally on the Day! +38% and 8 of 9 matches called correctly

So, today was the 4th day in a row that I made money in the markets, and the 4th day in a row anyone would have made money had they followed my picks.  I'm pretty full of myself at the moment, but I hope that I can continue to deliver quality results.

I will try to put the picks up for tomorrow before I go to sleep tonight, but we shall see.  I'm waiting for BetFair to open the markets on them.

As of right now I'm thinking Fish, Federer, Djokovic, and undecided on Murray/Simon.  Before I make these final I want to see how the market perceives them.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Thurs)

Nadal v Verdasco
Rafa went down an early break to Verdasco.  I've seen Rafa do this several times, but he usually bounces back so I took the opportunity to double down.

Nadal immediately broke back in a game in which Verdasco, had three double faults.  I'm back in the money with this position.

Shockingly Nadal double faulted on triple break point to put him back a break down.  My position is back out of the money.

Nadal is looking shaky and I'm considering back Verdasco, but I want to see a few more games.  Verdasco is falling apart as he was just broken back.... Not so much on Rafa's brilliance but on his own misgivings.

Verdasco had 2 break points on Rafa's next serve, but lost 4 straight points to lose the game.  At this point I backed Rafa, because players often fall apart after losing chances like that.  However, he held so I took a small loss.



Murray v Bogomolov
Murray took Bogo's first and second service game off him, so this is looking like a good position to be in.

When Murray was up a break in the second set I sold out at 1.03.  Perfect time to do so, as he later got broke.  He went on to win, but I already had my profits.


Nicolas Almagro v Tomas Berdych
I moved out of this position after Berdych broke Almagro early in the first set for a sizable loss.  Berdych looked to be playing well and that makes him dangerous.

Mardy Fish v Richard Gasquet
The Fish Gasquet match was pretty tight, but Fish took the first set.  I sold out after the first set.

Gilles Simon v David Ferrer
So far this match is on serve at 4-3 Simon.  It will be tight and I think if Simon gets up a break I will sell out quickly.

Ferrer just double faulted to lose the first set.  I'm going to sell out here for a nice gain.

Novak Djokovic v Radek Stepanek
I backed Novak to win the first set @ 1.11, then used the original bet, plus the winnings to bet on Novak  in the second set.  He won both 6-3, 6-3 so it turned out great.

Tally for the day!

So far today, if you had backed each of my picks and held you'd have a gain of 30.66% of the total amount.  Not a bad day again so far.  Luckily Simon pulled it out in the 3rd set.

I didn't do that, because I am a trader.  However, I have similar results.  I am up 31.78% on the day.

We still have a few matches to go!

Cincy Masters - Day 4

My picks for today are as follows.

Men's Tournament

Favorites -- in order of play

11AM EST/4PM GMT

Rafael Nadal @ 1.16 v Fernando Verdasco

Andy Murray @ 1.27 v Alex Bogomolov -- On this one I'd watch how Murray is playing.  His play in North America has been terrible this year, and he only beat Nalbandian in the first round because Nalbandian was playing even worse than Murray.  I think he'll bounce back in this one, but you never know what could happen so watch for Murray's level or errors and serve percentage.

Mardy Fish @ 1.49 v Richard Gasquet -- I normally would like to take Gasquet on this one because I think it's a really favorable price, but Fish has been on a tear lately I and I don't want to go against that.

Novak Djokovic @1.07 v Radek Stepanek -- I'm going to bet Novak in each successive set.  The first set is going off at 1.11, so I would recommend that, however, if Stepanek takes a set of Novak I'm going to bet bigger on the second and third sets, unless something looks terribly wrong.

Roger Federer @ 1.13 v James Blake -- While Blake is playing well and everyone seems to think that Federer is on the decline, he played beautifully versus del Potro and he's looking hungry leading up to the US Open.  Roger also usually plays really great in the lead-up tourneys to majors.  If Roger wins the first set, I will move out of this position and use the winnings to put on the second set line.

Gael Monfils @ 1.85 v Philip Kohlschreiber -- Last night this was going off at 1.98.  I got in then.  This was one of those situations where I felt like the line was too good to be true.  Therefore I will be sure to move out of this position if it looks like Monfils is struggling.  Sometimes the French fall out of leadup tourneys early (ahem, Tsonga in Cincy and Eastbourne this year).

Dogs

Nicolas Almagro @ 2.6 v Tomas Berdych

Gilles Simon @ 2.42 v David Ferrer

Again, watch the way these guys play and take wins and losses when we feel the need to.

Nothing on the women's front.  I can't bring myself to watch women's tennis with the same intensity as men's tennis, so my ability to make picks on it is tough.  Plus women's tennis is incredibly unpredictable. I'll try to live blog during matches.

Cincy Masters - Day 3 Partial Results

So far all my matches have held up except for Tsonga.  The Serena Williams match was a loss, but since it was a walkover all bets are off.

However, since Tsonga lost and Serena didn't play the total gain for the day is only a couple percent.  Since this is the case, I'm going to add a few more plays to my bets for today.

I'm going to back Djokovic in both the first set and the second set for as well as the whole match.

I'll be back tomorrow to make picks.

Update

Novak won in straight sets so I ended the day up around 4%.  Not a great day, but remember any gain is better than a day of losses.  Today was a relatively low risk low reward day.  Since I couldn't actually trade on the matches as I was on a flight I didn't want to outright back any underdogs.

Cincy Masters - Day 3

Men's Tournament
Favorites


Andy Murray @ 1.32 v David Nalbandian
Novak Djokovic @ 1.05 v Ryan Harrison
Rafael Nadal @ 1.09 v Julien Benneteau
Mardy Fish @ 1.46 v Nikolay Davydenko
Radek Stepanek @ 1.36 v Andrey Golubev
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.17 v Alex Bogomolov Jr

Dogs


I don't see any in the cards today.  There will likely be one, but I can't choose one today.  I've got a 2:30 flight back to the States today, so I'm going to back these and see what happens.  So today I'm essentially betting instead of trading.  But I'm still confident.

Women's Tournament
Favorites

Serena Williams @ 1.58 v Samantha Stosur

Good luck!!

Tuesday's results -- Good results

Yesterday I went 5 - 0.  If you'd put the same amount on each event, for instance £10, you'd be up £30.5.  A 61.5% increase on the overall investment.  Pretty good days work.  However, I didn't hold on through the entire match, because I like to take winnings when I can.  I ended the day up 24% on my total bankroll.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters (Tues)

Tipsarevic donuted Roger-Vasselin in the first set.  So I sold out of that position at 1.05, for a nice gain.  As soon as I see an opportunity that I haven't written about already I will take it and update this post.

Tsonga got up a set so I moved out of that position after that.

Dodig broke Gulbis in the 4 game of the first set, so I sold out for a 60% gain.

On another note, Janko got pushed to a third set and a tiebreaker, this is where I'm glad I sold off in the first set, otherwise I'd be biting my nails about now.

Cincy Masters - Day 2

Today's tournament matches!  I have a few less picks today.  However, I want to stress that you should take these picks and use them as a guide to matches you should either bet on or trade on.  Either way I hope you make money!


Men's Tournament
Favorites
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.65 v Marin Cilic
Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.24 v Edourdo Roger-Vasselin

Dogs
Ivan Dodig @ 2.74 v Ernests Gulbis

Women's Tournament
Favorites
Serena Williams @ 1.07 v Lucie Hradecka
Shuai Peng @ 1.35 v Gisela Dulko

Good luck today.  I will try to live blog with opportunities I see.

Day 1 Back - Results

So yesterday was good on the men's front and terrible on the women's.  All my men's picks won and my women's picks lost.  If anyone had bet £10 on all the picks and waiting until the end you'd be up £49.10.

I however didn't do that as I traded out of several of the positions early, so I ended up 22% on my bankroll and I'm up to £152.10.  I will start posting actual trades in the future.

Live Blog - Cincy Masters

Lisicki went down an early break so I doubled down on her at 1.53.  She broke back the very next game so it turned out well.

I also moved out of my Fabio Fognini position after he got up 30 love on Troicki's serve in the 4th game for an 19% profit.  I bought back into Fognini after Troicki almost broke him, I find that players who almost break, but end up having rough games the next game.  Sure enough Fognini broke and won the set, plus he routed Troicki in the 2nd set.  Still shocked that I got 6.2 on Fognini at the start of this match.

I'm back -- Cincy Masters

It's been awhile since I've made any posts.  I've taken a big break in trading.  But I'm back and ready to start blogging about it again.  I've started trading again last week with the beginning of the Rogers Cup.  This week is the Cincy Masters.  I'll post a few picks everyday in terms of pre-match position.  I don't plan to do much in-match trading except exiting positions as it's too difficult with the time change and non-live feeds.

Today August 15, 2011

Women's Tournament -- 1st Round
Favorites
Sabine Lisicki @ 1.27 v Shahar Peer --  I would hold this until the first set is over, if Lisicki wins I'd exit the position and if Shahar wins I'd either double down on Lisicki or sell out depending on the stats.

Julia Georges @ 1.83 v Jie Zheng

Dogs (No looks wise in this case, as Pironkova is a classic beauty)
Tsvetana Pironkova @ 2.42 v Christina McHale

Men's Tournament 1st round
Favorites
Alex Bogomolov Jr @ 1.44 v Robby Ginepri
Richard Gasquet @ 1.53 v Alexandr Dolgopolov
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.74 v Juan Carlos Ferrero

Dogs
David Nalbandian @ 2.2 v Kei Nishikori
Fabio Fognini @ 6 v Viktor Troicki

These are the current prices on these.  They are likely to move different directions before the match starts so wait for the best price before the match.

When trading it is key for each of you to learn when to trade out.  For me I like to use the strategy above, but I have to get a feel for how each player is playing.  On any given day any player can beat another because sometimes everything goes right for one player and everything goes wrong for another.  Just look at Rafael Nadal's loss last week at the hands of Ivan Dodig.  Anything is possible, so trade out when you are comfortable.  If you feel the match is going the way you predicted hold with it, but get out when you have a handsome profit.  I've learned the hard way, when I could have traded out of a position as a player was serving for the win match and ended up losing.