It was a crazy day at Wimbledon with Jo-Wilfred Tsonga upsetting Roger Federer. Since I backed Fed, it was still okay since I got out after he was a set up.
Rafa, Novak, and Andy all won today, making all my trades profitable.
I haven't updated my bankroll in awhile. My new total is £161.50 and I'm up 61.5% since I started this blog. I'm pretty happy with the results so far, but I'm always looking to improve.
Tomorrow I'm going to back Maria Sharapova v Sabine Lisicki. I'll trade out of this position as soon as I get a 15-20% profit from my stake.
Wednesday 29 June 2011
Men's Quarterfinals - Wimbledon
Today is the Men's quarterfinals action of Wimbledon. Since there were no men's matches on yesterday I didn't back anyone.
Today, I'm going to back all of the favorites except for Nadal because he could have to retire after his foot injury during his match against del Potro.
So I'll back Djokovic, Federer, and Murray today.
Today, I'm going to back all of the favorites except for Nadal because he could have to retire after his foot injury during his match against del Potro.
So I'll back Djokovic, Federer, and Murray today.
Monday 27 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 7 - Round of 16!
Today marks the start of the round of 16 matches.
This is where the matches should get a lot tighter for the favorites.
I'm going to start the day by backing,
Juan Martin del Potro v Rafael Nadal
Mardy Fish v Tomas Berdych
David Ferrer v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga
Bernard Tomic v Xavier Malisse
I'll sell out of these positions as soon as there is a decent profit margin.
Tomic/Malisse was up first....
I made a nice profit after Tomic put Malisse down a break on his first service game.
Gasquet pushed Murray to a break point on his first service game. The line moved from 4.3 (where I backed Gasquet) to 3.0 when Gasquet had the break opportunity. I sold off for a healthy profit.
Mardy Fish won the first set in his match up with Berdych. I would've pulled out right at the beginning of the tiebreaker, but Berdych's 1st serve percentage was horrible so I held on until after he won for a bigger profit.
Currently del Potro and Nadal are still on serve, I'm debated whether to sell off or not, but we'll see.
Also, in a rare move to trade on Women's tennis I backed Pironkova v V. Williams. This turned out well and I sold off after Pironkova's first break on Venus.
This is where the matches should get a lot tighter for the favorites.
I'm going to start the day by backing,
Juan Martin del Potro v Rafael Nadal
Mardy Fish v Tomas Berdych
David Ferrer v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga
Bernard Tomic v Xavier Malisse
I'll sell out of these positions as soon as there is a decent profit margin.
Tomic/Malisse was up first....
I made a nice profit after Tomic put Malisse down a break on his first service game.
Gasquet pushed Murray to a break point on his first service game. The line moved from 4.3 (where I backed Gasquet) to 3.0 when Gasquet had the break opportunity. I sold off for a healthy profit.
Mardy Fish won the first set in his match up with Berdych. I would've pulled out right at the beginning of the tiebreaker, but Berdych's 1st serve percentage was horrible so I held on until after he won for a bigger profit.
Currently del Potro and Nadal are still on serve, I'm debated whether to sell off or not, but we'll see.
Also, in a rare move to trade on Women's tennis I backed Pironkova v V. Williams. This turned out well and I sold off after Pironkova's first break on Venus.
Wimbledon Day 6
I didn't do a ton of trading on Saturday for day 6 of Wimbledon.
However, I did back Novak Djokovic after he dropped a set. I also backed Roger Federer from the beginning of his match. Overall it was a pretty light day of trading.
However, I did back Novak Djokovic after he dropped a set. I also backed Roger Federer from the beginning of his match. Overall it was a pretty light day of trading.
Friday 24 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 5
As suspected David Ferrer played well and finished off Ryan Harrison in 5 sets.
However, as I type Roddick is down 2 sets to love against Feliciano Lopez. I think he's got a good chance to come back and win this match or even take the next set. But we will see. He lost two sets in the tiebreaker which is tough. Hopefully he makes a comeback.
I lost my stake on Roddick. It was a tough blow, but I made the mistake of betting on him when I hadn't seen how the play was going. If I had I would have seen that he was not playing well and Feliciano was playing out of his mind. I didn't lose much as I didn't place a huge amount on this match.
Otherwise things for today were good. Gilles Simon took the first set with Del Potro into a tiebreaker, which is where I sold off for a good profit. I then backed Simon after he lost the first set, and again sold out after he got a break.
Monfils lost the first set which is when I further backed him, as I was watching this match and he came back to win the second to which I made a profit.
I'll update my P/L in the morning and make suggestions for what I did during the Murray match and my picks for tomorrow.
However, as I type Roddick is down 2 sets to love against Feliciano Lopez. I think he's got a good chance to come back and win this match or even take the next set. But we will see. He lost two sets in the tiebreaker which is tough. Hopefully he makes a comeback.
I lost my stake on Roddick. It was a tough blow, but I made the mistake of betting on him when I hadn't seen how the play was going. If I had I would have seen that he was not playing well and Feliciano was playing out of his mind. I didn't lose much as I didn't place a huge amount on this match.
Otherwise things for today were good. Gilles Simon took the first set with Del Potro into a tiebreaker, which is where I sold off for a good profit. I then backed Simon after he lost the first set, and again sold out after he got a break.
Monfils lost the first set which is when I further backed him, as I was watching this match and he came back to win the second to which I made a profit.
I'll update my P/L in the morning and make suggestions for what I did during the Murray match and my picks for tomorrow.
Wimbledon Day 5
I'm in school all afternoon so I can't do very much live trading.
I'd back David Ferrer at 1.35 as I think he'll for sure take the 4th set and then take the fifth as well.
I plan to back some underdogs today.
I'm going to lay Del Potro v Gilles Simon today. Simon has the ability to play really well and Del Potro hasn't been overly consistent lately. I will take a profit early if Simon gets up a break or pushes the first set to a tiebreaker or even gets an early break point opportunity depending on the movement of the line. I'll bail out if he is broken early.
Lastly I plan to back Roddick and Monfils today.
Happy trading!
I'd back David Ferrer at 1.35 as I think he'll for sure take the 4th set and then take the fifth as well.
I plan to back some underdogs today.
I'm going to lay Del Potro v Gilles Simon today. Simon has the ability to play really well and Del Potro hasn't been overly consistent lately. I will take a profit early if Simon gets up a break or pushes the first set to a tiebreaker or even gets an early break point opportunity depending on the movement of the line. I'll bail out if he is broken early.
Lastly I plan to back Roddick and Monfils today.
Happy trading!
Wimbledon day 4 - results
Up 11% New Bankroll 129.22
So day four at Wimbledon was awesome. Having great center court seats was really great. If you ever get the chance it is an amazing event and I would highly recommend it especially if you enjoy tennis.
My picks for yesterday didn't go exactly as planned, but what in life ever does. So let's go over what I did wrong. First, I suspected that Hewitt would be a pushover for Soderling. After Sodering dropped the first set I backed him further, and then after he dropped the second set I backed him again. I was a bit uncomfortable going so deep on this, but I knew that Soderling wasn't playing badly and that it was a very tight match. I thought that he had a very good chance to come back and win in 5 sets. Thankfully for me I was right. He won the next three sets and took the match. I sold off with a modest profit in the 4th set, so I could guarantee profit. I wished I had held on because I had a solid feeling about Soderling. Tennis is such a swing sport it's tough to make yourself do things like that though.
2nd I was also wrong about Tomic. I thought that would be an easy match for him and he dropped the first two sets. I sold my position after the first set for a small loss because I hadn't seen how Tomic was playing and I didn't want to make a judgement call on just the score alone. The scoreboard in tennis rarely says what is actually going on.
As I recommended Del Potro came back and won three easy straight sets.
Also Melzer took the first and third sets in his match. I backed him from the beginning and then sold off after he took the first set.
It was a great day, although I wouldn't recommend live trading from the event unless you have the proper equipment. I was forced to use the BetFair app for iPhone which was less than desirable for use.
So day four at Wimbledon was awesome. Having great center court seats was really great. If you ever get the chance it is an amazing event and I would highly recommend it especially if you enjoy tennis.
My picks for yesterday didn't go exactly as planned, but what in life ever does. So let's go over what I did wrong. First, I suspected that Hewitt would be a pushover for Soderling. After Sodering dropped the first set I backed him further, and then after he dropped the second set I backed him again. I was a bit uncomfortable going so deep on this, but I knew that Soderling wasn't playing badly and that it was a very tight match. I thought that he had a very good chance to come back and win in 5 sets. Thankfully for me I was right. He won the next three sets and took the match. I sold off with a modest profit in the 4th set, so I could guarantee profit. I wished I had held on because I had a solid feeling about Soderling. Tennis is such a swing sport it's tough to make yourself do things like that though.
2nd I was also wrong about Tomic. I thought that would be an easy match for him and he dropped the first two sets. I sold my position after the first set for a small loss because I hadn't seen how Tomic was playing and I didn't want to make a judgement call on just the score alone. The scoreboard in tennis rarely says what is actually going on.
As I recommended Del Potro came back and won three easy straight sets.
Also Melzer took the first and third sets in his match. I backed him from the beginning and then sold off after he took the first set.
It was a great day, although I wouldn't recommend live trading from the event unless you have the proper equipment. I was forced to use the BetFair app for iPhone which was less than desirable for use.
Thursday 23 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 4 - Trading suggestions for the day
My trading suggestions for the day:
Last night Juan Martin Del Potro went down one set to Oliver Rochus. I'd back him before the start of the match today and sell off whenever you get comfortable. After an early break or even a break opportunity will create a decent profit.
I'd back Tomic v Andreev and sell off after the first set.
I'd back Jurgen Melzer v Denis Tursonov and sell off if he get's an early break or an early break opportunity.
Lastly, I'd back Soderling v Hewitt. I think that this won't be much of a match, but you still get decent odds.
One thing to remember when making assumptions before a match is that you should watch the match and try to get a feel for the way it is going. There are times that you can tell that it's not a certain players day. For instance, yesterday I wanted to bank Fernando Verdasco but after watching the first few games it was obvious that he was going to struggle with the match.
Happy Trading!
Last night Juan Martin Del Potro went down one set to Oliver Rochus. I'd back him before the start of the match today and sell off whenever you get comfortable. After an early break or even a break opportunity will create a decent profit.
I'd back Tomic v Andreev and sell off after the first set.
I'd back Jurgen Melzer v Denis Tursonov and sell off if he get's an early break or an early break opportunity.
Lastly, I'd back Soderling v Hewitt. I think that this won't be much of a match, but you still get decent odds.
One thing to remember when making assumptions before a match is that you should watch the match and try to get a feel for the way it is going. There are times that you can tell that it's not a certain players day. For instance, yesterday I wanted to bank Fernando Verdasco but after watching the first few games it was obvious that he was going to struggle with the match.
Happy Trading!
Wednesday 22 June 2011
Day 3 Final Results
Up 10.8% New Bankroll £116.37.
These are the finals for today. There are no other matches that I want to make trades on today. So that'll be all.
I enjoyed blogging as I traded today. I may continue to do so, except I'll keep it shorter and more in realtime.
Tomorrow I'm attending Wimbledon. I will probably do some light trading while watching matches, but we will have to see. Tomorrow a live update won't be possible.
These are the finals for today. There are no other matches that I want to make trades on today. So that'll be all.
I enjoyed blogging as I traded today. I may continue to do so, except I'll keep it shorter and more in realtime.
Tomorrow I'm attending Wimbledon. I will probably do some light trading while watching matches, but we will have to see. Tomorrow a live update won't be possible.
Wimbledon Day 3 in trading
Earlier in the day I made a trade from my mobile, I was in class so I couldn't use my computer or post the idea. When I saw that Venus Williams went down a set to Date-Krumm, I back Venus knowing that she would pull through at least to push it to 3 sets. I sold out after she won set 2.
Currently watching Mardy Fish v Denis Istomin. I believe this will be a 3 set win for Fish, but Istomin is a heavy hitter. Istomin just battled out of being down 40-15 in his opening game.
Fish was broken after his almost break on Istomin. I took Fish at 1.6 after he was broken. We'll see how it moves as the match progresses.
As predicted in my earlier post Wawrinka went down on his opening game against Bolelli. I backed Wawrinka at 1.40. So we'll also see how that plays out. Wawrinka broke back during game 4 and I laid out at 1.2 for a nice 11.6% profit on that trade. Beautiful!
Fish breaks back on Istomins serve on game 8. I was able to lay at 1.25 for a nice profit. So far so good today.
Often times this strategy can backfire, especially in 3 set tournaments that don't matter as much. But as I stated before 5 set matches and Grand Slams are different. Good players dig deeper and weaker players crumble under pressure more often. You have to know the players you're dealing with this strategy will not work in every situation.
My next move was to back Fish at the beginning of the tie-breaker at 1.36. Once he went up 6-3, I sold off at 1.2 for another nice profit. Even though I could've waiting for him to win for a higher profit, why not take the good profit when you can. Although he ended up winning the tie-breaker it went to 6-6 before he finally won it.
I'm done trading the Fish match and am now focused on Wawrinka/Bolelli. Wawrinka ended up dropping the first set in the tie-breaker, so I've backed Wawrinka at 1.72 and will exit this position as soon as I see a good opening. Unfortunately for me Wawrinka dropped his first service game in the second set and has gone up 2.6+. I still believe that the tide will turn for Wawrinka, but we'll see what happens. I'm holding my position on this match for the time being. I decided to further back Wawrinka, at 2.54. If he is able to break back I'll be able to sell out for a nice profit. In game 7 Wawrinka pushed Bolelli to 3 break points. I sold out at 40-15 Wawrinka at 1.80. Although I lost on the first trade I made a nice profit on the other to make an overall profit.
Another good lesson. When backing something, and things get worse. If you are still confident that the player will make a comeback it's a good idea to back him more at a better price. This will cost average you out so that when you sell out you make an even better profit. To do this though you should make sure that you are not going in really deep into your roll on your bets.
Next up.....
Verdasco went down an early break. I backed Verdasco at 2.12 immediately following the break and when he went up 15 - love the next game I cleared the trade at 1.98 for a 7% profit on that stake. I was happy with this move and I've found that when a favorite gets broken early if you back them you'll find a profitable exit shortly after.
A huge mistake I made when watching this match was that I should've backed Haase after the first couple of games. He was playing superbly and Verdasco was not playing that well. If I had backed him at 2.5 and then sold at 2.1 when he had his first break point against Verdasco I would have benefited handsomely.
After Gael Monfils lost his first set to Grega Lemlja I backed him. As soon as he went up an early break I decided to close the trade for a profit.
Currently watching Mardy Fish v Denis Istomin. I believe this will be a 3 set win for Fish, but Istomin is a heavy hitter. Istomin just battled out of being down 40-15 in his opening game.
Fish was broken after his almost break on Istomin. I took Fish at 1.6 after he was broken. We'll see how it moves as the match progresses.
As predicted in my earlier post Wawrinka went down on his opening game against Bolelli. I backed Wawrinka at 1.40. So we'll also see how that plays out. Wawrinka broke back during game 4 and I laid out at 1.2 for a nice 11.6% profit on that trade. Beautiful!
Fish breaks back on Istomins serve on game 8. I was able to lay at 1.25 for a nice profit. So far so good today.
Often times this strategy can backfire, especially in 3 set tournaments that don't matter as much. But as I stated before 5 set matches and Grand Slams are different. Good players dig deeper and weaker players crumble under pressure more often. You have to know the players you're dealing with this strategy will not work in every situation.
My next move was to back Fish at the beginning of the tie-breaker at 1.36. Once he went up 6-3, I sold off at 1.2 for another nice profit. Even though I could've waiting for him to win for a higher profit, why not take the good profit when you can. Although he ended up winning the tie-breaker it went to 6-6 before he finally won it.
I'm done trading the Fish match and am now focused on Wawrinka/Bolelli. Wawrinka ended up dropping the first set in the tie-breaker, so I've backed Wawrinka at 1.72 and will exit this position as soon as I see a good opening. Unfortunately for me Wawrinka dropped his first service game in the second set and has gone up 2.6+. I still believe that the tide will turn for Wawrinka, but we'll see what happens. I'm holding my position on this match for the time being. I decided to further back Wawrinka, at 2.54. If he is able to break back I'll be able to sell out for a nice profit. In game 7 Wawrinka pushed Bolelli to 3 break points. I sold out at 40-15 Wawrinka at 1.80. Although I lost on the first trade I made a nice profit on the other to make an overall profit.
Another good lesson. When backing something, and things get worse. If you are still confident that the player will make a comeback it's a good idea to back him more at a better price. This will cost average you out so that when you sell out you make an even better profit. To do this though you should make sure that you are not going in really deep into your roll on your bets.
Next up.....
Verdasco went down an early break. I backed Verdasco at 2.12 immediately following the break and when he went up 15 - love the next game I cleared the trade at 1.98 for a 7% profit on that stake. I was happy with this move and I've found that when a favorite gets broken early if you back them you'll find a profitable exit shortly after.
A huge mistake I made when watching this match was that I should've backed Haase after the first couple of games. He was playing superbly and Verdasco was not playing that well. If I had backed him at 2.5 and then sold at 2.1 when he had his first break point against Verdasco I would have benefited handsomely.
After Gael Monfils lost his first set to Grega Lemlja I backed him. As soon as he went up an early break I decided to close the trade for a profit.
Wimbledon Day 3 - Pretrading
Today I decided that I would post my strategy for the day before I actually start trading. That way I have some accountability to my plan and my readers. A well as giving any of my readers my thoughts for their own use.
So, today I plan to back Gilles Simon @ 1.64 against Dudi Sela. Simon is an excellent player and he should take this in 3 or 4 sets. I will trade out of this position if he gets up one set. I will also back him further if he gets down one set and then move out of the position after set 2.
After Verdasco's long 5 set match yesterday v Stepanek, I will watch for an opportunity in his match today.
I will keep an eye on Wawrinka and other heavy favorites to see if they get down an early break or early set and back them until they're profitable.
I will update after trading about what moves I made and which direction I will try and go tomorrow.
So, today I plan to back Gilles Simon @ 1.64 against Dudi Sela. Simon is an excellent player and he should take this in 3 or 4 sets. I will trade out of this position if he gets up one set. I will also back him further if he gets down one set and then move out of the position after set 2.
After Verdasco's long 5 set match yesterday v Stepanek, I will watch for an opportunity in his match today.
I will keep an eye on Wawrinka and other heavy favorites to see if they get down an early break or early set and back them until they're profitable.
I will update after trading about what moves I made and which direction I will try and go tomorrow.
Wimbledon Day 2 - Back in the Black
Up 12% New Bankroll 105.03
However, day 2 of trading went really well. I started by backing Serena William at 1 set all and holding on until I had a 20% gain on my bet.
My next move was to back Fernando Verdasco when he was down 1 set to love against Radek Stepanek. When he went down 2 sets to love I backed him further, hoping for a comeback. I was able to get it at 7 at this point. When he won the third set I was able to trade for a nice profit.
Then I was to back John Isner v Nicolas Mahut. I knew that this was a high profile match because of the records they set last year. However, I felt that the line was skewed in Mahut's favor. I felt that last year was a fluke and the Isner is a better player proven by his results. I was able to back Isner at 1.54 and I sold out for a profit after he took the first set.
Sunday 19 June 2011
Wimbledon Starts Tomorrow
I haven't updated in a couple of days as I haven't been doing any trading on the Final matches of the Unicef Open or The Aegon International. I have been preparing for the coming fortnight of The Championships, Wimbledon.
I will be trading several matches tomorrow and I will post my plans in the morning.
Some things to keep in mind about trading matches during Wimbledon. Things change at Grand Slams. To most players this is the most important tournament of the year or at the very least 1 of 4 of the most important tournaments of the year. It is also a 5 set tournament as opposed to all other tournaments that are now 3 sets. Also to keep in mind is that players have a day of rest between each match unless one of their matches is delayed. As Roger Federer has been quoted saying, a regular tournament is like a sprint, a grand slam is a marathon. You have to keep things like this in mind when you are trading because the dynamics totally change. Two weeks ago at the Aegon Championships, Nadal lost a 3 set match to Tsonga. This is much more unlikely to happen at Wimbledon because of all of the above reasons. Since the matches are 5 sets, you have to keep in mind that the swings can be much more violent. Players can come back from 2 sets down, players can get injured, etc.
It's going to be an interesting 2 weeks and I should have an update daily, except for Sunday when their aren't any matches.
I will be trading several matches tomorrow and I will post my plans in the morning.
Some things to keep in mind about trading matches during Wimbledon. Things change at Grand Slams. To most players this is the most important tournament of the year or at the very least 1 of 4 of the most important tournaments of the year. It is also a 5 set tournament as opposed to all other tournaments that are now 3 sets. Also to keep in mind is that players have a day of rest between each match unless one of their matches is delayed. As Roger Federer has been quoted saying, a regular tournament is like a sprint, a grand slam is a marathon. You have to keep things like this in mind when you are trading because the dynamics totally change. Two weeks ago at the Aegon Championships, Nadal lost a 3 set match to Tsonga. This is much more unlikely to happen at Wimbledon because of all of the above reasons. Since the matches are 5 sets, you have to keep in mind that the swings can be much more violent. Players can come back from 2 sets down, players can get injured, etc.
It's going to be an interesting 2 weeks and I should have an update daily, except for Sunday when their aren't any matches.
Friday 17 June 2011
Xavier my savior today - UNICEF Open
Up 6% New Bankroll 93.78.
Today I started the day trading on a match betwee Xavier Malisse and Alex Bogomolov at the UNICEF Open in The Netherlands. I only made one trade on the match, I initially backed Malisse to win and as soon as he broke in the first set I traded out for profit.
I planned on trading the later matches at the Aegon International, but bad weather here in the UK prevented the matches from playing. So I although I felt as though I would like to continue trading today, there weren't any other matches that I felt confident in trading. It is hard to stay disciplined to know when to quit, but today I feel as though I definitely made the right decision.
I'll try to spend the rest of the day analyzing the Wimbledon draw so that I can decide which matches I want to trade on Monday. As there are so many matches on Monday it will be impertinent that I make smart selections.
Be back tomorrow.
Today I started the day trading on a match betwee Xavier Malisse and Alex Bogomolov at the UNICEF Open in The Netherlands. I only made one trade on the match, I initially backed Malisse to win and as soon as he broke in the first set I traded out for profit.
I planned on trading the later matches at the Aegon International, but bad weather here in the UK prevented the matches from playing. So I although I felt as though I would like to continue trading today, there weren't any other matches that I felt confident in trading. It is hard to stay disciplined to know when to quit, but today I feel as though I definitely made the right decision.
I'll try to spend the rest of the day analyzing the Wimbledon draw so that I can decide which matches I want to trade on Monday. As there are so many matches on Monday it will be impertinent that I make smart selections.
Be back tomorrow.
Thursday 16 June 2011
Better day at Aegon International
Up 11% New Bankroll 88.47.
Today I started out trading the Venus Williams v Daniela Hantuchova match. I watched the match from the beginning and I saw that although Venus lost the first set she was playing really well. So I backed her as soon as the first set was over. She continued to play well in the second set and won 5-7. The odds moved severely back in my favor and I sold out for a nice profit.
I then traded Stosur v. Zvonareva match. At the beginning of the match I backed the serving receiving back and forth until the first break. This strategy didn't work that well, but I still ended up with a profit. After the first break I wasn't feeling very good about the match and my confidence trading the match so I quit.
One of the lessons I've learned from this and past experiences is that you shouldn't trade when you're not confident or when you're not focused. Like the players on the court you have to be fit to trade. Like the players you can't trade profitably if you're not mentally fit. I'll trade more tomorrow on the Aegon International.
Today I started out trading the Venus Williams v Daniela Hantuchova match. I watched the match from the beginning and I saw that although Venus lost the first set she was playing really well. So I backed her as soon as the first set was over. She continued to play well in the second set and won 5-7. The odds moved severely back in my favor and I sold out for a nice profit.
I then traded Stosur v. Zvonareva match. At the beginning of the match I backed the serving receiving back and forth until the first break. This strategy didn't work that well, but I still ended up with a profit. After the first break I wasn't feeling very good about the match and my confidence trading the match so I quit.
One of the lessons I've learned from this and past experiences is that you shouldn't trade when you're not confident or when you're not focused. Like the players on the court you have to be fit to trade. Like the players you can't trade profitably if you're not mentally fit. I'll trade more tomorrow on the Aegon International.
Wednesday 15 June 2011
Aegon International - Eastbourne. Not a good start
Down 20.3%. Bankroll 79.70.
I started the day looking at matches that I felt comfortable with and matches that were going to be televised. While I think it's possible to successfully trade matches that aren't on TV, I do think that it's more risky. After looking at the matches I didn't see anything that I wanted to trade at the UNICEF Open so I decided to wait until the afternoon Men's matches at the Aegon International.
While waiting for the Tsonga v Stepanek I decided to start trading the S. Williams v Zvonareva. After a set and a half and even though Williams was up a set and a break I decided that backing Zvonareva at 8.10 was a good idea. Williams had played a long match yesterday and this was turning out to be another long one. Considering Serena hadn't played a match in several months and the fact that she was having to take breathers after long points I figured she would start to breakdown a bit. My intuition was correct as Zvonareva forced her to a tiebreaker and eventually a 3rd set. With an early break in the first set Zvonareva was going off at 1.31. A huge difference. I wish I had held out that long, but I took profits much earlier. Nonetheless I was happy with my profits on this match. Zvonareva ended up winning the match in the third set.
Finallly the Tsonga/Stepanek match started. I backed Tsonga from the beginning and to my dismay he was immediately broken in the opening game. I 'greened' up on this trade or 'redded' after he lost the first set for a major loss. Luckily I had made a decent gain on Zvonareva earlier or it would've been worse.
One lesson from today. At lesser tournaments such as the Aegon International or even Queen's top players don't always play their best. For instance it would be much more surprising to see Tsonga top Nadal at a grandslam or even a master's series event, but he did so at Queens. Same goes for Stepanek v Tsonga. Tsonga was down a break and laughing at the Aegon International because it's not that big of a deal. As I write this he is down a set and a break, but I still have confidence that he could come back. I have to go for a school function. Will be back tomorrow!
I started the day looking at matches that I felt comfortable with and matches that were going to be televised. While I think it's possible to successfully trade matches that aren't on TV, I do think that it's more risky. After looking at the matches I didn't see anything that I wanted to trade at the UNICEF Open so I decided to wait until the afternoon Men's matches at the Aegon International.
While waiting for the Tsonga v Stepanek I decided to start trading the S. Williams v Zvonareva. After a set and a half and even though Williams was up a set and a break I decided that backing Zvonareva at 8.10 was a good idea. Williams had played a long match yesterday and this was turning out to be another long one. Considering Serena hadn't played a match in several months and the fact that she was having to take breathers after long points I figured she would start to breakdown a bit. My intuition was correct as Zvonareva forced her to a tiebreaker and eventually a 3rd set. With an early break in the first set Zvonareva was going off at 1.31. A huge difference. I wish I had held out that long, but I took profits much earlier. Nonetheless I was happy with my profits on this match. Zvonareva ended up winning the match in the third set.
Finallly the Tsonga/Stepanek match started. I backed Tsonga from the beginning and to my dismay he was immediately broken in the opening game. I 'greened' up on this trade or 'redded' after he lost the first set for a major loss. Luckily I had made a decent gain on Zvonareva earlier or it would've been worse.
One lesson from today. At lesser tournaments such as the Aegon International or even Queen's top players don't always play their best. For instance it would be much more surprising to see Tsonga top Nadal at a grandslam or even a master's series event, but he did so at Queens. Same goes for Stepanek v Tsonga. Tsonga was down a break and laughing at the Aegon International because it's not that big of a deal. As I write this he is down a set and a break, but I still have confidence that he could come back. I have to go for a school function. Will be back tomorrow!
Tuesday 14 June 2011
£10,000 Challenge!
I'm an American student currently living in London. Since I arrived a few months ago I've been fascinated by how easy it is to gamble in the UK, especially on sports. It's incredibly simple to open an online account at any number of sportsbooks or walk down to Ladbrokes or WillHill to place a wager. In the US the government has cracked down on it so hard that opening a betting account and funding it is incredibly difficult as many sites won't serve US customers, US banks won't allow transactions, etc and Sportsbooks are few are far between.
I started making a few small bets here and there when I felt like I had spotted an opportunity. When betting against Murray v Troicki at the French Open I wished I could have closed out the bet when Troicki was up 2 sets to love. However, I couldn't as I had made the bet at an online sportsbook. After this I decided that I wanted to find a sports exchange like one I had used several years earlier called tradesports. This exchange has currently closed and I found that BetFair and Betdaq had filled the space.
I immediately opened up an account and started trading on tennis. I found tennis to be an excellent sport to trade on because their are swings, lots of matches throughout the year, and enough liquidity in the market. After trading for a couple of weeks, I decided to give myself a challenge and blog about it because I feel as though I will perform better under the pressure. So I've decided that I am going to attempt to make £10,000 with an initial bank of £100. I have a few strategies that I've tried in the past couple of weeks that I will be implementing and detailing in future posts when I have more data. I will try to post on trading days and will keep a running tally of all my profits and losses starting with trading at the UNICEF Open and Aegon International. I plan to focus on Men's tennis to begin with, but I have some ideas about women's tennis as well. They are fundamentally different in the way the play and the the way the odds move. More on that later.
Depending on how long this takes I will also occasionally trade on other sports when I feel as though I've spotted a good trade.
I started making a few small bets here and there when I felt like I had spotted an opportunity. When betting against Murray v Troicki at the French Open I wished I could have closed out the bet when Troicki was up 2 sets to love. However, I couldn't as I had made the bet at an online sportsbook. After this I decided that I wanted to find a sports exchange like one I had used several years earlier called tradesports. This exchange has currently closed and I found that BetFair and Betdaq had filled the space.
I immediately opened up an account and started trading on tennis. I found tennis to be an excellent sport to trade on because their are swings, lots of matches throughout the year, and enough liquidity in the market. After trading for a couple of weeks, I decided to give myself a challenge and blog about it because I feel as though I will perform better under the pressure. So I've decided that I am going to attempt to make £10,000 with an initial bank of £100. I have a few strategies that I've tried in the past couple of weeks that I will be implementing and detailing in future posts when I have more data. I will try to post on trading days and will keep a running tally of all my profits and losses starting with trading at the UNICEF Open and Aegon International. I plan to focus on Men's tennis to begin with, but I have some ideas about women's tennis as well. They are fundamentally different in the way the play and the the way the odds move. More on that later.
Depending on how long this takes I will also occasionally trade on other sports when I feel as though I've spotted a good trade.
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