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Friday 11 November 2011

Semi Final Picks

Isner @ 3.1 v Tsonga -- I'd advise trading out of this one at around 2 if Isner takes the first set.  However, I think this is a great price based on how well Isner has been playing basically since Wimbledon.  He's going to continue to be a threat and I predict will be in the top 10 by the middle of next season.

No pick on Berdych v Federer.  If I had to choose I'd say Federer.  I think that Berdych has been all over the place in his last two matches.  At one point against Tipsarevic he was down a double break point in the first set and then came back to win.  He only beat Murray bc Murray beat himself and wasn't playing his best.  Murray made way more unforced errors and lacked the intensity necessary.  However, these two wins that Berdych has had against tough players surely will give him confidence going in against Federer, not to mention that he has beaten Fed in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Even though Fed has the all time record of 9/13 over Berdych.  I won't put any money on this until I get a good feel for the match.  Then I will try to trade in and out 1 or 2 times when I get a feel.  For example if there is a tight first set and Fed loses, I will back him until he gets ahead a break in the 2nd or wins the 2nd in a breaker based on my believe that he'll win the 2nd if he's playing a tight match.

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